Shaheen
Sehbai
Pakistan
heads towards another experiment in about 10 days. Once again another
military dictator is determined to prove to the impoverished country,
and to the world, that brute power of the gun is smarter than the
collective wisdom of the intellectuals of the world who, through
the long march of history, have reached the conclusion that military
rule is no replacement for democracy, and the answer to problems
of democracy is more democracy alone.
This
time, the new dictator has used corruption of politicians as his
crutches to consolidate his grip on power. Previous dictators used
other excuses, turned the country into a laboratory for their half-baked
experiments and left the State in a much depleted condition, dithering
on the brink of bankruptcy, political, financial and more importantly,
moral and intellectual.
In
three years, however, all the planks on which General Musharraf
constructed his edifice of “honest, transparent and good governance,”
collapsed one by one, leaving him as yet another army general, seeking
perpetuation of his own rule, his family’s financial prosperity
and his cronies’ political ambitions.
The
plank of corruption collapsed when he allowed his main adversary,
the Sharif family he toppled, to leave the country, giving them
a pardon. The other political threat, Benazir and Zardari, were
ruthlessly persecuted, with no modicum of any justice apparent in
the rough medicines administered to the couple. All other corrupt
politicians, who pledged allegiance to the dictator, were forgiven
and allowed to flourish.
The
plank of transparent and good governance gave way to the same machinations
and bureaucratic jugglery which was the hallmark of the previous
regimes, to get favorites into the big games. How the country’s
prime bank UBL was privatized tore off even the rags of transparency
from financial good governance. How the Hariris of Lebanon were
promised the multi-billion dollar Pakistan Telecom left international
bidders in a daze. How the Saudis were offered and sucked into taking
over key strategic assets would have created history of a different
kind, had not 9/11 overturned the applecart.
The
plank of integrity in politics tumbled when the country was forced
to witness the farce of the April referendum and the way it was
conducted, defended and used. How judiciary was subjugated added
insult to injury. Constitutional Amendments left no clothes on the
emperor’s body. Manipulation of the electoral process told
the nation the rules of the game had not changed. If in the past
a politician wanted to be Amir-ul-Momineen, now it was a General
who wanted to be Stalin or Pinochet.
The
latest plank of personal honesty was blown to pieces when confirmation
came through mysteriously puzzling disclosures by the Rawalpindi-Peshawar
Motorway builder that General Musharraf’s kitchen cabinet
member and father-in-law of his son Bilal, was actually a “Mr
Two Per Cent” in the Rs 7 billion contract and had been paid
as a consultant and had probably left the country. More worrying
was the disclosure that the firm he “advised” had purchased
12
industrial units so far and the count was on. In what circumstances
these sick units had been bought off by the same "well-advised"
firm is yet to be explained.
Given
all this dirty linen, now the country is being led into a “controlled
and carefully steered” phase of democracy expected to come
through a national election which neither looks national nor resembles
an election, as all contestants with any challenge have been thrown
out of the race.
Yet
it is a move forward like 1985 when the non-party elections of General
Zia ul Haq broke the suffocation of his eight-year rule. The 2002
elections will produce their own dynamics. As he promises, General
Musharraf will have to devolve some executive authority to the elected
people, both at the center and the provinces. He believes he will
be able to keep the elected politicians under strict control but
his track record shows he has not been able to control any of the
entrenched interests. The bureaucracy rules like it ever did. Corruption
in the finance and defence sectors is as rampant as if nothing had
changed. Some of the gruesome stories of wastage and corruption
in military ranks have demonstrated that civilians had simply been
made an scapegoat, the real dirty game is played somewhere else.
Only that it was always brushed under the carpet.
If
elections are rigged, it would be no surprise as it would be naïve
to expect anything better from such deeply entrenched vested interests.
If the people show defiance, no one should be surprised if a crackdown
follows.
What
the country should carefully watch out should be its supreme strategic
and long term interests, in terms of its independence and sovereignty,
as well its integrity. A ruthless suppression of peoples will and
their rights can be terrifyingly counter-productive. A submission
to international pressure could lead to Pakistan deprived of its
only source of national strength and pride, its ability to defend
itself through conventional and nuclear weapons.
Like
previous dictators, this set of Generals will also run out of steam
much sooner than expected. Already General Musharraf has become
a politician, which means someone who can mislead and distort facts
to his advantage, according to his will. Soon he will be a polished
politician and the way he thinks he is popular, he may soon try
to get himself into a genuinely elected position of the President,
as against the fraudulent manner adopted to clinch to power for
five years. That is when he will have to share real authority with
others. That is when his grip will loosen. That is when he will
become vulnerable.
The
elected politicians, specially the popular ones in exile, have done
well to mark their time and let General Musharraf play out his political
games. Their time will come soon as the Generals make mistakes on
their way. But at least some headway will be made towards a democratic
direction when houses of Parliament are restored and Opposition
is allowed to discuss and debate decisions and conduct of the Generals.
Pakistan
will thus gain from the October 10 exercise, in whatever little
increment it may. The effort of all should be to let this exercise
proceed. General Zia ul Haq found his Junejo and then lost out to
him. Musharraf is looking for one, he will find one, but he is definitely
not better than Zia ul Haq, politically speaking. He has been forced
to play on the politicians’ turf and has not been given enough
time to learn all the tricks. He is prone to falter, and falter
soon.
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