An Indian Military View on Kashmiris joining Pakistan
LoC as border: A viable solution?
Rear
Admiral (retd) Raja
Menon
India’s
lowest ebb in retaining Kashmir was probably 1963. We had just
experienced a humiliating defeat. Under
the duress of a large western arms transfer, an Indian delegation
led by Sardar Swaran Singh offered almost 1,500 square miles beyond
the ceasefire line to Pakistan for a permanent settlement. And,
according to one Indian source, even a toe-hold in the valley
itself.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who led the Pakistan delegation, refused
all concessions short of the entire valley.
The same Bhutto ate humble pie at Simla but his reneging on the
agreement to convert the Line of Control (LoC) into an international
border (IB) between India and Pakistan is now history.
India today is far from weak and there is every sign of us shaking
off our poverty with a 6-8 per cent growth. We need to turn our
face away from Pakistan’s hideous society, mired as it is
in mediaeval theology and paranoiac nationalism. Settling the
Kashmir problem with the LoC as IB is a good way to start.
That Islamabad does not expect J&K to join Pakistan is now
clear. No Pakistani leader can afford to say so, but Islamabad’s
emphasis on the wishes of the people being paramount is a good
enough indication. Most Indians may be unaware that throughout
the 1980s Pakistani elite expected that India would pull apart
in 20 years and Kashmir would fall into their laps.
Their mood has swung around. The panic creating expression ‘failed
state’ keeps cropping up. Their bitterness stems from knowing
that the jehadis and the Pakistan army are more likely to take
them there than anything India might do. Dumping Kashmir might
rid them of both headaches.
The world is now with India. Western capitals have re-educated
themselves, and realised that plebiscites lead to mass migrations,
ethnic cleansing and horrendous massacres. The Helsinki agreement
sanctifies territorial boundaries.
We are not so alone anymore in preserving the integrity of a huge
multi-ethnic, multi-religious state. For these reasons, the elections
in J&K will be accepted as an expression of people’s
will.
The next elected government in Srinagar may well be recognised
in Washington and Beijing as the legitimate government of an undisputed
territory. India needs to cash in on this.
Will destabilising attempts continue from across the border? They
might, mostly by non-state actors. But we should look at the trend,
not the statistics. J&K has a population of about seven million
plus. PoK has just three million with another million in the Northern
Areas. J&K, despite the insurgency, has overtaken PoK in development.
The Kashmiri leaders are not stupid.
Joining Pakistan at this stage would be like joining Bihar. India
should make concessions to encourage Musharraf to agree, eg: India’s
re-acceptance of what was almost agreed to in 1989 on Siachen,
including disengaging and withdrawal; increased autonomy for J&K
akin to the Trieste settlement; two transit points on LoC; restoration
of diplomatic missions, over flights, landing rights; demobilisation
and reduction of troops in J&K; accepting the Pakistani position
on Sir Creek.
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