Shaheen
Sehbai
In
just about two weeks Pakistan goes to the polls, or whatever this
controlled, manipulated, state and stage-managed, pre-determined
rigged exercise could be called. By any definition it is not a “free
and fair” election as candidates have been pre-screened, qualified
and disqualified, political parties have been banned or cleansed,
individuals have been thrown out of the race, favorites have been
pushed into center stage, no matter how corrupt or infamous they
may be.
The
sole purpose is getting an impotent, spineless Parliament which
could then be steered from the Presidency. All the rest is rhetoric
and misleading slogans, some for local and the rest for foreign
consumption.
The key element of thinking and over-confidence
in General Musharraf’s tone and tenor is the backing and support
he thinks he is receiving from Washington. The General is reading
too much into the warm handshakes which President Bush offered him
in New York. He has to think deeper into why the US is supporting
a dictator so enthusiastically when its stated global policy is
to support democracy, human rights, civil liberties and freedoms
elsewhere in the world.
Some
muted messages were conveyed to General Musharraf about democracy
and freedoms 
even
during his New York visit. Condoleezza Rice did the unpleasant job
followed up by anonymous spokesmen. One major embarrassment was
the messing up of reported attempt to assassinate Musharraf. Islamabad
denied it flatly but US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage
confirmed it. Who is right? Our Don Quixote, the starchy uniformed
Presidential spokesman Maj. General Rashid Qureshi wondered publicly:
"Where does Mr Armitage get his information."
But
now the US Ambassador to India, Bob Blackwill has come out with
a direct and categorical indictment of General Musharraf and Pakistan’s
Kashmir policy, as compared to what the Indians are doing in the
held territory. Listen to the tone and tenor of Blackwill’s
words, uttered in TV interviews in New Delhi, shortly after his
return from New York where he was present in meetings President
Bush had, both with General Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee.
“The
United States expects Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to honor
a commitment to stop Islamic militants infiltrating into Indian
Kashmir to join a revolt against Indian rule there. Infiltration
is certainly still going on. Our judgment is it is up in August
and up in September though it had fallen in June and July. Yes,
it's gone on and we condemn it."
On
what the Indians are doing, the US ambassador said: “The first
round of voting in Kashmir was a positive start to the electoral
process. It was remarkable, the turnout..47 per cent.. in a situation
in which terrorists tried intimidation and coercion, they were able
to assassinate one minister...and they tried to kill others…We
think that India's commitment to hold free and fair and inclusive,
and as far as they can be non-violent, elections in Kashmir, is
exactly right. It was a positive first round and we hope it continues.
I think the dominating variable is how much violence is up there.
If there is less violence, I suspect there will be more turnout."
With such strongly worded certification for the Kashmiri polls,
which General Musharraf and Pakistan call “sham” and
with a turn out of over 45 per cent, the obvious inference is that
Washington and New Delhi have aligned on the issue and Islamabad
has been left in the cold, alone. This is the corner in which General
Musharraf’s “frank, candid and brave” foreign
policy has put Pakistan into.
In
this background where does the Pakistani electoral exercise fit
in. If 45 per cent turnout in Kashmir was a “sham” poll,
what if the Pakistani turnout remains less than 15 or 20 per cent.
With enthusiasm for the elections waning, as all major players and
parties have been thrown out, on one pretext or another, with only
unprincipled, politically ambitious, financially corrupt and traditional
“lotas” (turncoats) remaining in the field, how much
a turnout can be achieved. All analysts are predicting a dismal
interest. Not one major political rally has yet been noticed, although
just about two weeks remain for campaigning to close.
On
another plane, the contours of Washington’s long term policy
in South Asia have already been laid out and announced. The latest
US National Security Strategy has been given out in these words:
“The US has undertaken a transformation in its bilateral relationship
with India based on a conviction that US interests require a strong
relationship with India. We are the two largest democracies, committed
to political freedom protected by representative government. India
is moving toward greater economic freedom as well. We have a common
interest in the free flow of commerce, including through the vital
sea lanes of the Indian Ocean. Finally, we share an interest in
fighting terrorism and in creating a strategically stable Asia.
Differences remain, including over the development of India’s
nuclear and missile programs, and the pace of India’s economic
reforms. But while in the past these concerns may have dominated
our thinking about India, today we start with a view of India as
a growing world power with which we have common strategic interests.
Through a strong partnership with India, we can best address any
differences and shape a dynamic future.” http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss8.html
As
against this strategic view, Pakistan is only important as long
as the war on terror remains focused on Al-Qaeda, Osama and Afghanistan.
But it is already waning. Iraq is taking over faster than anyone
can imagine. Karzai has been shouting from all roof tops that US
and the West are not meeting their financial commitments for reconstruction
and rebuilding. Pakistan is facing a similar dwindling interest
as seen by nothing in terms of Pakistan’s Wish List even being
discussed in Musharraf’s visit.
With
elections in Pakistan further eroding General Musharraf’s
credibility, much of which was drowned by the futile referendum,
what will be left for the Pakistan Army to bank on, except terrorist
or nuclear blackmail, pure and simple. Threats of terrorists again
regrouping to hit at US targets, infiltration into Kashmir and civil
war in Afghanistan against Karzai and National Alliance will be
Pakistan’s only strategic options to browbeat US into supporting
Musharraf.
It
may work for a while, but only for a while before Washington decides,
in collusion with India, to put its foot down and teach the Army
a lesson. That would be the end of Army’s role in politics
and it could well mean an end to Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence
and capability.
The
path Pakistan is thus treading leads to a dark alley and the Generals,
in their tunnel vision of total power and unchallenged rule, are
set to destroy themselves and the country as well.
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