By
Shaheen Sehbai
GENERAL
MUSHARRAF and his ruling Corps Commanders have now come out openly
to declare that they will not concede any power, or even space,
to the politicians and they will continue to call all the shots,
whether the showpiece political government of Mr Jamali wants to
stay or go.
As
the next move in the military strategy, the Army commanders have
decided to send the following message to the politicians on the
issue of LFO: “Take it or leave it.”
Reports
in the Pakistani media have elaborately exposed the power structure
of the current Army junta. “On first Monday of every month,
Musharraf holds meeting with the Corps Commanders and Principal
Staff Officers to discuss the key professional, internal and foreign
policy related issues. Since the military take-over of October 1999,
this has been the key decision-making forum of the country,”
Kamran Khan, the well informed reporter of “The News”
reported last week.
His report also said: “For one more time this week, the military
leadership reiterated that Musharraf’s election as the president
through a referendum last year was final, hence there was no need
for him to seek a fresh election through new parliament.”
And Kamran informed us said President Musharraf has not yet been
advised by any of his military colleagues to announce the date of
his retirement as the Chief of Army Staff, the critical sticking
point of the Government-Opposition negotiations.
The strategy of the Army thus appears to be to keep the pot boiling,
create the illusion of more threats and dangers, raise controversial
issues and make Pakistan appear to be an ungovernable place. The
implication would be that only a fully armed and disciplined institution
like the Army can handle this mess. So no one should look around
for alternatives.
There can be several interpretations of these Army moves, the main
being that all this hoopla about talks with the MMA is eyewash and
unless the religious parties, under direct and indirect pressures
from the Army, agree to what they are being told, there is no chance
of any breakthrough.
General
Musharraf will not give any timeline for taking off his uniform
nor concede that his election through the fraudulent referendum
was bogus and he should get himself re-elected from Parliament.
The façade of the Jamali Government is being tolerated under
international pressure, not much of it coming from Washington. But
Musharraf is being asked to deliver more and, as a subtle message,
Jamali is now being hosted by the White House, just to let Musharraf
know that if he falters, Washington could start talking to and take
the political government seriously.
In their misplaced over-confidence and power-drunk Generals have
also decided to use the stick to further screw the politicians and
force them to rally behind General Musharraf, give him a 2/3rd majority
in the Parliament and approve every self-serving change he has made
in the Constitution.
The
merger of the Muslim League factions, followed by a similar merger
of break-away PPP factions and splitting the MMA are thus next steps
of this strategy to bulldoze every one.
What the Generals have forgotten is that the whole system they are
erecting is built around one individual. Despite all the super-security
to protect him, suppose he slips in his bathroom and fatally hits
his head on the bathtub, the system will collapse like a castle
of sand.
Naturally
the next General in line will take over power, but for him to sweep
the mess and keep the structure running would be impossible. The
country would then fall into real chaos.
The
West, particularly the US, have started realizing this threat of
putting all their eggs in one shaky basket. But it is too early
for Washington to make any substantial move as any wrong message
could shake up the Musharraf house of cards instantly.
In
the upcoming visits of General Musharraf and Prime Minister Jamali
to Washington and New York, the White House strategists will have
to walk a tight rope, carefully balancing what vibes are transmitted
in their meetings which take place and those which do not.
Musharraf
can thus expect a usual warm handshake, words of praise and some
financial crumbs but Mr. Jamali would have to contend with a reserved
and restrained reception, mostly consisting of formality and protocol
visit, without much substance.
He
must, however, impress his US hosts that he is a man of substance
and could be trusted, if called upon in an emergency.
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