Politics, Musharraf-style
G.
Parthasarathy
AS
international attention remains focused on the anniversary of last
September's terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, an interesting
and intriguing electoral battle is taking shape in Pakistan. General
Pervez Musharraf is following the path set by past military dictators
like Field Marshal Ayub Khan, General Yahya Khan, and General Zia-ul-Haq,
and imposing his own version of democracy on the hapless people
of Pakistan.
By
a series of amendments to Pakistan's constitution of 1973, General
Musharraf has proclaimed himself president and chief of army staff
for five years with effect from the date that his 
electoral
process is completed. Musharraf retains the power to dissolve Parliament
and make all-important judicial and governmental appointments, particularly
in the armed forces.
Overseeing the
working of the democratically elected government will be a national
security council, in which the armed forces will be significantly
represented. Musharraf obviously envisages a government in which
the prime minister will be a figurehead and the parliament a rubber
stamp. In reality, what he intends is that democracy in Pakistan
will be a government of the army, by the army, for the army.
Musharraf has
ensured that political rivals like Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharief
are prevented from contesting the election in order to see that
his hegemony is unchallenged.
The Pakistan
Muslim League has traditionally had a large number of feudals who
are ever ready to join hands with any military dictator and use
the official machinery to ensure their electoral success. It has,
therefore, not been difficult for Musharraf to split the Muslim
League and form a 'King's Party' that calls itself the Pakistan
Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam).
This party,
ostensibly headed by Mian Azhar, a rival of Nawaz Sharief, was to
have joined a number of others who, like them, depend on government
patronage to win elections. They were to form a 'Grand Alliance'
to fight Benazir's Pakistan People's Party and Sharief's PML-Nawaz.
The other parties who were to have joined the 'Grand Alliance' and
currently constitute what is called a 'National Alliance' include
those headed by former president Farooq Leghari and former prime
minister Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi.
Imran Khan's
Tehriq-e-Insaaf has not found it possible to make common cause with
these worthies, because Imran suddenly found that it was the PML-QA
that was set to receive the maximum backing of the military government.
In the meantime,
the mainstream religious parties, the Jamiat-e-Islami, the Jamaat
Ulema-e-Pakistan and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam have joined together and
formed an alliance called the MMA. Given their reservations about
Musharraf making common cause with the Americans against the Taliban
and Al Qaeda, this group, which had backed the army and the ISI
in General Zia's days, has turned against the government.
The Musharraf
dispensation is sparing no effort to see that those who back it,
especially from the PML-QA, are elected using all the powers at
its disposal particularly in the majority Punjab province. Even
the selection of candidates here for the PML-QA has been overseen
by Musharraf proteges, including his principal secretary, Tariq
Aziz, and a coterie of specially chosen officials in Lahore. These
include the corps commander, Lahore, General Jamshed Gulzar, the
chief secretary of Punjab, Hafeez Akhtar Randhawa, and the former
ISI hand turned home secretary of Punjab, Brigadier Ejaz Shah.
The governor
of Punjab, Lieutenant General Khalid Maqbool, has been sidelined.
Reports from Pakistan suggest that the corps commanders in Sind
and Baluchistan have avoided joining their colleague in Lahore in
attempting to manipulate the elections. Thus, not everyone in the
armed forces is overly enthusiastic about the direction Musharraf
is proceeding in. But even in these provinces the local administration
is pulling out the stops to make things easy for those the Musharraf
dispensation supports.
While there
was considerable public disaffection against political leaders when
General Musharraf took over in October 1999, the good general has
not particularly endeared himself to the people after his farcical,
rigged referendum. Further, while Pakistan's external balance of
payments may have improved after large doses of foreign assistance,
the continuous rise in prices of public utilities and essential
commodities and rising unemployment have only added to the woes
of the common man.
There appears
to be little doubt that should the election be conducted in a free
and fair manner, Benazir Bhutto's PPP will do exceedingly well.
The alliance
between Bhutto and Sharief to take on General Musharraf could well
lead to a PPP-PML-N coalition after the election. Parties like the
Awami National Party headed by Asfandyar Wali Khan in the North
West Frontier Province would be only too happy to join such a grouping.
But as General Musharraf would not like this to happen, every effort
will be made to influence and rig the election results to produce
a hung parliament that can be manipulated through government patronage
and coercion.
Pakistan is
headed for an uncertain and turbulent political future. Should the
PPP and PML-N come back with a substantial majority, they will move
to undo the constitutional amendments Musharraf has effected, either
through the courts or through the parliament. This will bring them
into direct confrontation with General Musharraf.
But if Musharraf
does massively rig the elections as he did in the referendum for
his "election" as president, he will have even less political
legitimacy than he now does.
But what must
be encouraging to him is the virtually unqualified support that
he has received from the Bush administration. Speaking after the
rigged referendum, President Bush proclaimed: "He's still with
us in the war against terror and that's what I appreciate."
Only a few days ago, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage
went further and tacitly supported Musharraf's decision to continue
as president attired in the uniform of the army chief for another
five years.
But in the past,
such American support has eventually ended as a kiss of death for
Pakistan's military dictators and resulted in Pakistan being unable
to develop a viable system of democratic governance.
New Delhi has
wisely refrained from commenting on the political processes in Pakistan.
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has expressed his readiness
to talk to any government in Islamabad that ends the use of terrorism
as an instrument of state policy.
It is obvious
that despite the positive statements emanating from Washington about
the contribution of General Musharraf to the war on terrorism, there
is a growing realisation that the epicentre of global terrorism
has shifted from Afghanistan to Pakistan. Speaking at Bagram near
Kabul a few days ago, General Tommy Franks, commander-in-chief of
the US Central Command, said: "Over time the war against terrorism
may need to be extended beyond Afghanistan... The relations we have
with states surrounding Afghanistan will permit us over time to
do this work."
Put bluntly,
this was a message to General Musharraf that he should act decisively
against Al Qaeda and its supporters who are now based all over Pakistan,
or face the prospect of American intervention in his country. Pakistan
has tried to deflect the blame for the escape of Al Qaeda terrorists
to Iran. But as the recent assassination attempt on Hamid Karzai
showed, Al Qaeda and its supporters are most active near the Pakistan-Afghanistan
border.
It remains to
be seen how General Musharraf will deal with this situation and
simultaneously manage the political challenges he faces within Pakistan.
