Shaheen
Sehbai
President
General Pervez Musharraf has just concluded what turned out basically
to be a Public Relations exercise in Boston, Chicago and New York,
and that too among Pakistanis willing to cheer him on his arrogance
of power. His 25-minute meeting with President Bush, the hot ticket
item of his show, turned out to be a whimper, not proceeding beyond
the routine handshakes for the cameras and pats on the back for
the good services rendered for the master.
But
this time the White House made it a point that before and after
the ceremonial handshakes and camera clicks, the somber message
of Bush losing patience with Musharraf was delivered adequately.
The day he landed on US soil, National Security Adviser Condoleezza
Rice spoke about democracy in Pakistan and objections raised by
the Administration to steps taken by Musharraf. Immediately after
Bush met him, US officials hurried to the media, anonymously of
course, to disclose that on top of their agenda was Bush's message
for democracy.
The
file containing the long Wish List brought by Musharraf was never
opened, as obviously there was no time left for anything else after
Bush had lectured on democracy, then lectured on why Pakistan should
support US attacks on Iraq and then lectured on how Pakistan must
do more against Al-Qaeda and hidden Taliban in Pakistan and within
Pakistan. Musharraf himself acknowledged in his Press briefing to
reporters, shortly before his departure, that all the remaining
subjects could not be discussed in such summit meetings where the
time was short. He never explained why the wish list was prepared
at all, if that was the case.
Rightly
or mistakenly, the impression Musharraf took away from New York
was that Washington was solidly behind him and all the muted objections
to his scheme of democracy and domestic power grabbing could be
easily ignored. This impression could be a double edged sword as
Musharraf has to understand that Bush is behind him as long as he
does not see a credible alternative leader in Pakistan. The US is
only interested in pursuing its goals and agenda and right now they
do not care for anything else. But this does not give Musharraf
a free hand. The example of General Zia ul Haq vs a tame Mohammed
Khan Junejo fits here almost to the last dot. Until Musharraf’s
presence and the US interests coincide, he remains the blue eyed
boy. The moment US interests change, he will be the villain and
any one, even a new Junejo elected through the rigged mechanism
now in play, would be preferable to Washington.
Many
who saw Musharraf in New York got the impression that he was "power
drunk" dismissing every body and every objection as if he was
immortal or indispensable. He trashed politicians, mocked his opponents,
maligned the media, the ones who dare to oppose him, and did so
with such arrogance that bordered misplaced foolhardiness. In such
a state of mind one often commits blunders and Musharraf did commit
one by blurting out the remarks in Boston about a new Army Chief
to be appointed soon.
He
did not mean it but the damage had been done. His words, whether
spoken in all seriousness or jokingly, spread far and wide and hit
home where they should have, within his army ranks. Now a silent
wait has begun with people watching his next move. If it does not
come soon, the dynamics of change would find its own way. If he
does bring about a change, a new dynamics would be unleashed. The
message that went out of that Harvard University speech has sunk
in and none of the antics of his media managers can erase it.
Coupled
with that mixed message, the White House insistence on rubbing in
the “democracy in Pakistan” theme and the chumminess
shown by President Bush and his aides to Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee,
including a devastating consensus that the struggle in Kashmir was
terrorism and not a “freedom fight”, has further thrown
into serious doubts the claims by Musharraf that his views had been
positively received.
It
appears Musharraf has fallen a prey to the propaganda of his own
trumpet blowers, who almost invariably start believing their own
lies after a while. In this case as well, while Musharraf is praised
by every crony, with folded hands, about how brave and forthright
his argument was, the whole lot forgets whether any one had listened
or taken it seriously. Musharraf was confronted by some reporters
about this state of mind and he would not listen, but he did admit
that US Administration had taken a position on Kashmir which was
not what Pakistan stood for.
Yet
he was not bothered about it as long as President Bush patted him
on the back for doing the job of catching US enemies in Pakistan,
no matter how many enemies Musharraf was creating for his own self
in the process.
Musharraf
finds it very satisfying that overseas Pakistanis clap for him and
rush to attend his dinners and meetings. This is no yardstick to
measure personal popularity or to judge whether these people are
supporting his policies. These expatriates have the habit of cheering
every one who comes from back home, has some position of authority
and who can return a favour whenever they visit him in their holidays.
Ninety per cent of the faces sitting around the head table of General
Musharraf and his family were the same seen around similar tables
laid for Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif in the past. Only the few
organizers change faces, depending on what relationship they have
with the leaders. Rest do not matter.
So
after an almost non-descript visit to US, a waste of precious time
and money to be more precise, Musharraf headed home with misconceived
perceptions that he was totally in demand and he could face any
challenge. Such misplaced confidence could cost him more than he
has bargained for. It could cost the country even more.
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