Shaheen
Sehbai
The day General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan landed on US
soil in Boston, President Bush’s National Security Adviser
Condoleezza Rice made the disturbing White House position public
that President Bush had objected to some of the recent political
moves made by Musharraf (to grab more power).
Coming
at a time when Musharraf has taken a big personal risk by leaving
his home base, where reports had suggested at least six attempts
had been made on his life in recent months, the Rice statement could
be ostensibly misread by some radical mavericks in the Pakistan
Army as a signal to move against Musharraf while he was away.
That
the Pakistani General has boxed himself in a corner is obvious and
the need for the Pakistan Army to find a dignified exit strategy
to return to the barracks and prevent further polarization on pro
and anti Army lines, is pressing.
The
political stage is overwhelmingly set against Musharraf. The mainstream
parties are out to get him and have almost joined hands setting
an unprecedented tradition which they think will help democracy.
The fear factor has galvanised the religious right into political
unity, as never seen before. The intelligentsia and media want democracy
and not a “guided” or a tailor-made hodge podge, many
similar experiments having failed in the past. Musharraf has to
fall back repeatedly on the support of what he calls “the
silent majority.” No one knows where it exists. It did not
even come out to show its face in Musharraf’s April referendum.
It is just a fig leaf, if at all so.
The
Army, thus, is Musharraf’s only, and the last, stronghold
and he must have felt totally confident in his subordinates that
he risked moving out of Pakistan for several days.
What
the Pakistani General was looking for in US was strong public support
by the Bush Administration for his regime aided by financial and
military handouts to consolidate this support. What he got on the
first day was a serious Rice rebuff, challenging his political moves
and creating a serious dent in his support base back home.
"There
isn't any compromise in terms of democratic principles here,"
she said, referring to US support for Musharraf. "The president
feels very strongly that democracy is the ultimate guarantor of
stability."
If
this is the ultimate US position, Musharraf will get into serious
trouble sooner than he can imagine. His political bank balance is
almost negative and he is running on over drafts. If the elections
are held he risks it all. If the results are not what he expects
things could get out of control in no time. If he rigs the polls,
will he be able to count on US and Army’s continuous support?
If
he postpones the elections he faces an almost total revolt with
even those now supporting him, expecting some political crumbs,
joining the Opposition. Will then the top Army brass continue to
keep him in place? They would look for a scapegoat and he has already
offered himself as one.
And
with the US so publicly and almost deliberately snubbing him with
the Rice statement, what can the White House offer him now to keep
his power base from shaking? President Bush will make his usual
“great ally” remarks when he meets Musharraf but will
Washington do enough to strengthen the impression that the Pakistani
dictator is still the blue-eyed boy, with all his shortcomings.
It
seems the Bush Administration has realized Musharraf’s weaknesses
and has decided to move away a little bit and to keep other options
open. But what can the White House do in such a situation is still
a big question mark as not many viable political and strategic options
are available at this point in time, given the US war against Al
Qaeda and Pakistan’s key role in it.
What
it can ensure is free and fair elections, which sits well with the
principled US position on democracy, elaborated by Condoleezza Rice.
When President Bush meets Musharraf in a few days, he can stress
that his elections have become highly controversial in the manner
they are being conducted at the pre-poll level. All parties and
leaders, irrespective of corruption charges against them, must be
allowed to contest so that the people have the right to choose.
Musharraf
should be told to strengthen the judiciary and the other legal frameworks
to let the law take its own course against those accused of corruption.
He should also submit his own self to the same laws and the same
courts and stop from acting like a Godfather with all the political
and military reins in his own hands. He could seek election as President,
appoint a new Army Chief, let the elected Prime Minister head the
National Security Council, make Supreme Court justices permanent
and totally independent and not tinker with the Constitution at
will.
It
is still not too late for America to realize that by placing all
its bets on an individual it had committed a grave strategic mistake.
That individual, as evident from credible reports, has already faced
six failed attempts on his life. He admitted in recent interviews
that his life was under threat. So who can guarantee that the 7th
or 8th or Nth attempt would also fail.
By
pressing Musharraf to get institutions back on the track, the US
will only be doing itself a favor. The elections in October offer
the best opportunity. Let it not be wasted for the sake of someone
who himself does not know how long he may last. Washington and the
White House would not like such a person to be their only hope in
a country which is otherwise destabilized beyond endurance. Let
this nation get its marbles back and start building its foundations
on something more solid and long lasting. That will serve Pakistani
and US interests alike.
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