Shaheen
Sehbai
Normally
when nations go to polls it is a test for the electorate to elect
the best government of their choice, based on positions taken by
the political parties and individuals on key issues. In Pakistan
elections are by and large a test for the Establishment as it is
this invisible entity which brings in new government, new party
leaders and new faces, no matter what the people think or vote for.
October
10 will be no different. While everybody is looking at who will
the “agencies” work for on polling day, no one is sure
of the people’s verdict, that is no one really believes what
the people will say will be accepted as the final word. The Pakistani
voters have been voting by and large on the same pattern in the
last four general elections, with just very minor shifts. But the
results have swung from one end of the spectrum to another, depending
on what the invisible government wanted.
The
people will again vote on the same pattern --- Sindh voting for
Benazir Bhutto, Central Punjab for Nawaz Sharif, southern Punjab
with a mixed bag, NWFP and Balochistan divided between PPP, ANP,
JWP, JUI and the Diaspora, Karachi going with MQM and some influential
independents thrown in here and there. Yet when it will come to
setting a pattern and determining who becomes credibly eligible
for forming a government, it is the agencies and the Establishment
which will play their smart tricks.
In
1990 when everyone agreed that the elections were massively rigged
against Benazir Bhutto, the trick was played in the compilation
and announcement of the results in the secret blocks reserved in
the Election Commission building. Some journalists, including myself,
luckily broke into one such office and caught the tricksters red
handed during their act. Then it was fully documented by others.
This
time around the game has been much crude and overt. Big players
were summarily thrown out, on one pretext or another. Favorites
were huddled together by coercion or carrots and some with brute
force. All pretence of fairplay and credibility was discarded. Set
goals had to be achieved and they will be achieved, no matter who
makes what kind of noise from which rooftop.
Thus
the challenge on Oct 10 will be for the Establishment and the Invisible
Government to keep their role and interference within such limits
that the chorus of protest does not wash away the entire exercise.
This is not an easy task given the onerous mission which underlies
the very purpose of holding the elections.
If
in their exuberance and excitement, something similar to the April
referendum is even attempted, the entire scheme will collapse, taking
down almost inevitably the main architect and the man who has declared
himself responsible for all what is going on --- General Pervez
Musharraf.
Given
these realities, October 10 would be a watershed for Pakistan. Either
it will throw up a leadership which in due course of time will be
able to take over most, if not all, critical affairs of the state,
or the elected assembly would get the nick name of a rubber stamp
and will hardly last a few months. In both these scenarios, General
Musharraf would appear to emerge as the big loser. Actually he will
not lose. He may, if he tries to steer this political train off
the track. What he has to realize is that electoral politics is
not a game played by commandos in a hit and run style.
For
the key players who have been kept out, October 10 will be a major
test of their strength, popularity and strategies. If despite all
the pre-poll rigging, Benazir’s PPP and PML of Nawaz Sharif
retain a meaningful part of their vote banks, they can rest assured
that the future will give them more chances to try their lucks.
If some strategies have not proved right, the interim period will
allow them to correct their course.
In
any case, a government run by politicians of any hue will be much
more favorably inclined to these exiled leaders than jackboots giving
orders and behaving in a no-nonsense apolitical way to deal with
complex political and social issues. Revival of the Parliament itself
will be a big boon as loyalists of these parties will be able to
use the forum to their advantage.
One
faint hope is that the re-emergence of politicians on the scene,
even with limited authority, will give some strength to the lifeless
spinal cords of the superior judiciary which has sold itself much
too easily and cheaply. Judges would have remained judges even if
they had shown a modicum of resistance. They would have gained in
stature and politicians and the media would have given them enough
vitamins to survive with dignity. Alas they opted for short term
gains, as they had been doing in the past, whenever ordered by the
men with the guns.
The
expectations of the nation from the superior judiciary are so high
that even 'observations' made in a lighter vein are considered to
be rays of light in a dark tunnel. Judges have to realize and understand
that if this nation has to stand on its own feet as worthy of international
respect, they have to play the key role. Just by being called “supreme”
they do not automatically become taller than the lot. They have
to earn their respect and if required, make some sacrifices as well.
Lastly
the armed forces have to realize that they, like in any other civilized
country, are not supposed to be dictating everything to everyone
all the time. They have not been great rulers in the past and it
is unlikely they will be so in the future. So the best course would
be to let those who are destined to rule get their much required
training through trial and error. Democracy evolves into a workable
system, it cannot be thrust. The Army has to understand this.
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