Pakistan should be the next target,
says Guardian
Pakistan
juggles with US and al-Qaida
Leader
Tuesday October 8, 2002
If
George Bush's "war on terror" were remotely rational,
or even roughly reasoned, then its next target might be Pakistan,
not Iraq. It should be said that the US is not justified in pre-emptively
and unilaterally attacking either country - or any other sovereign
state for that matter. But on the basis of Mr Bush's own "axis
of evil" criteria at least, Pakistan sits squarely in the theoretical
firing line. When it comes to weapons of mass destruction, Islamabad's
unregulated, uninspected nuclear bombs put it way ahead of Iraq
and Iran. When it comes to delivery systems, the US was obliged
only last weekend to rebuke General Pervez Musharraf's regime for
its alarming show-trial of a medium-range missile.
Pakistan,
or elements of Pakistan's intelligence and military services, had
well-established links with the Taliban in next-door Afghanistan;
Mullah Omar was widely seen as a Pakistani creation. Leading al-Qaida
figures, and possibly Osama bin Laden, are supposedly holed up in
Pakistan. Accelerating terrorist outrages, including attacks in
Karachi on westerners and Christian worshippers, have followed al-Qaida's
cross-border retreat. From here it is but a short jump to the shipping
lanes of Yemen and the airwaves of Qatar's al-Jazeera. And according
to India, Pakistan is still the prime, deliberate exporter of terrorism
in other directions, into Kashmir and Gujarat. By most "war
on terror" measures in fact, Pakistan, with its ruptured economy,
unstable politics and military government is a state both failed
and rogue that is over-ripe for regime change.
Canny
Gen Musharraf's strategic leap into Mr Bush's febrile camp one year
ago explains his survival so far, his apparent immunity from US
prosecution. Last month's timely handover of top al-Qaida suspect
Ramzi Binalshibh was the latest down-payment on an expedient deal
that keeps the 82nd Airborne at arm's length and the soft loans
coming. But that said, all the evidence suggests Pakistan's many-headed
terrorism and security problems are if anything worsening as the
religious parties agitate, assassination plots brew, and public
opinion, according to one poll, swings against extradition of terror
suspects to the US.
Gen
Musharraf, for whatever reason, has plainly failed to fulfil his
solemn June pledge to bring a "permanent" end to the infiltration
of militants into Kashmir. Over 600 people have died there in the
course of the current state elections. Last spring's referendum,
which made Gen Musharraf president with sweeping powers, was an
undemocratic embarrassment. His exclusion from public life of many
of Pakistan's established politicians is another. For these and
other reasons, how certain can he be that a US administration obsessed
with al-Qaida, losing its grip in Afghanistan, possibly emboldened
by Iraq, and pricked on by Delhi will not eventually turn on him?
The
answer is that he cannot be certain, for US policy is neither rational
nor reasoned. Far better all round, therefore, that Gen Musharraf
honour his personal promise to return to barracks and leave politics
to the politicians after this week's general election. Only a strong,
popular, democratic government, working with but not for the military,
has any long-term chance of rehabilitating Pakistan economically,
defanging the terrorists, and persuading India to end its threats
and start a meaningful dialogue. Only fair, unrigged elections can
bring the sort of regime change Pakistan really needs and stymie
the threat of escalating US interventionism. If Gen Musharraf reneges
and the election is stolen, the Pakistani people will know who to
blame.
Guardian
Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002
