By Simon Denyer
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan's military ruler President Pervez
Musharraf might get what he wants in Thursday's parliamentary election,
but victory may come at a considerable cost, analysts and diplomats
say.
The poll is supposed to mark the handover from military to civilian
rule three years after Musharraf took power in a coup.
But that process has already been subverted after the army general
awarded himself another five years as president, together with the power
to dismiss an elected parliament.
Now human rights groups and Western diplomats say the military has done
almost everything in its power to tilt the playing field or "pre-rig" the
election to ensure a compliant coalition government emerges after the
poll.
In the process Musharraf has not only lost some of the moral high
ground he claimed over the politicians he ousted. He may also have set the
military and the political elite on a collision course, analysts say.
In Pakistan's post-independence history, politicians and the army have
made uneasy bedfellows. Even a hand-picked parliament under General
Zia-ul-Haq ended up defying its military patrons in the 1980s --
politicians with constituencies always end up having to prove their
legitimacy by standing up to the army.
"There is one lesson the army is just not learning -- you just can't
control politics beyond a certain point," said Amir Ahmed Khan, editor of
Herald, a leading current affairs magazine.
"This is just a similar cake baked with a different recipe, but it is
going to taste the same."
With a myriad of parties competing, no reliable opinion polls and many
tight contests at the local level, the result of the election is too close
to call.
The pro-Musharraf PML(QA), a faction of the Pakistan Muslim League, is
perhaps favorite to emerge as the strongest party and form a coalition
government after the poll, largely thanks to what one Western diplomat
calls "a huge and systematic (official) effort to bolster them."
But a lot will depend on whether the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of
exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto can mobilise its traditional
support base to come out and vote.
Many PPP voters stayed at home in the last election in 1997, partly
thanks to disillusionment with Bhutto's chaotic rule.
"If that voter base comes back, it is going to be a far more closely
contested race," Khan said.
But whether the PPP or PML(QA) emerges as the strongest party, Samina
Ahmed of the International Crisis Group think tank agrees with Khan.
Politicians will end by up challenging the military's dominance, and the
stage will be set for a showdown.
MUSHARRAF STILL POPULAR
Musharraf still has many cards up his sleeve, not least the support of
Washington as a key partner in the U.S.-led war on terror. In the villages
of Pakistan, opinion polls show he remains the overwhelming choice as
president, and many people still think of him as a decent man trying to do
the best he can.
For his part, he insists parliament will have the authority to run the
country after the election, while he takes time off to play tennis and
golf.
Even his powers to dismiss parliament, he argues, are part of the
"checks and balances" needed to avoid a re-run of history -- corrupt
civilian politicians bleeding the country dry.
Musharraf says Thursday's vote will be "totally transparent and fair."
Most people expect the voting itself to take place freely, but it is the
way the election has been engineered in advance that has left a sour taste
in many mouths.
"It is abundantly clear...that the October 10 elections will not usher
in a new period of democratic rule," the independent Human Rights
Commission of Pakistan said.
The central charge is that a combination of carrot and stick has been
used to attract politicians with local followings to abandon their parties
and join PML(QA), often backed with the threat of corruption charges if
they do not cooperate.
"Either they are opportunists or...the most susceptible to corruption
charges," the diplomat said. "In the process he (Musharraf) has ended up
with a pretty sorry bunch of people."
The International Crisis Group's Ahmed describes the current
arrangements as "direct military rule under a civilian guise" and says
Pakistan will never move forward until the army disengages from
politics.
Without democracy, she argues, Islamic extremism will always find
converts, while South Asia will never be far from the threat of nuclear
war while the army dominates the agenda.
The diplomat has more sympathy for Musharraf, especially given the poor
records of many of the political elite.
"It is not so simple -- the military cannot just withdraw and let the
politicians get on with it," he said. "Continuing benevolent dictatorship
by the military is not the solution, but nor is just letting the
politicians get on with it."
