Why Did India Start
the Latest Indo-Pak Diplomatic Ballet
By
J.N.Dixit
GOVERNMENTS OF important countries have welcomed the 12 suggestions
offered by India in October to normalise relations with Pakistan
"for whatever they were worth," according to foreign
diplomats here.
Before looking at the proposals in detail and Pakistan's response,
one speculates why India made this move out of the blue. The current
phase of peace initiatives began with a statement in April by
Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in Srinagar, offering
a hand of friendship.
By
September the process of interaction had come to a standstill,
even degenerated into confrontationist polemics at the highest
political levels, not only in India and Pakistan but even in other
world capitals and at the U.N. General Assembly session.
The general anticipation was that interaction on positive lines
was not on the cards for some time to come. This was despite the
restoration of full-fledged diplomatic relations and resumption
of people-to-people contacts as well as the beginning of talks
on restoring air links.
What then impelled the Indian government to put forward these
proposals?
India's ruling coalition could not countenance an important diplomatic
initiative begun by Vajpayee should fizzle out in the desert sands
of traditional India-Pakistan confrontationist attitudes.
The
impression was gaining ground amongst major world powers, particularly
after the U.N. General Assembly session in September, that India
was being unrealistically obstreperous in insisting that it would
resume a political dialogue only after complete ending of cross-border
terrorism.
India
is willing to take graduated steps for creating an atmosphere
for a dialogue. The proposals focus on making a positive impact
on the people of Pakistan in terms of their concerns and interests
about interacting with India. The proposals were motivated by
electoral concerns of impressing the Indian voter about the Vajpayee
government's commitment to peace and a safe security environment
in the subcontinent.
The
proposals would also constitute the context of Vajpayee's discussions
with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in November, and
provide the background for ongoing discussions between high-level
Indian teams and their U.S. counterparts on several agreements
for cooperation in economy, technology and commerce.
Announcing the Indian proposals on October 23, External Affairs
Minister Yashwant Sinha asserted they were part of the normalisation
process to take India-Pakistan relations back to the situation
that existed before the December 13, 2001 attack on India's Parliament
that was blamed on Pakistan-based groups.
He
elaborated there was a groundswell of support for Vajpayee's peace
initiative at the people's level. He implied that Pakistan's common
people of Pakistan were similarly supportive of Vajpayee's initiatives.
Sinha emphasised India's offer should not be seen as a sign of
weakness. The Pakistani response came in a press conference given
by Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokhar October 29.
India
suggested restoring cricket and other sporting links. Pakistan
accepted the proposals and hoped these linkages will begin soon.
India's proposal for a bus service between Srinagar, India's Jammu
and Kashmir, and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-administered Kashmir
has been accepted by Pakistan in principle subject to two pre-conditions
-- all checkpoints en route to Muzaffarabad be manned by U.N.
officials and bus travellers should carry U.N. documents for identification.
This
was a clear political gimmick to get the UN. re-involved in the
Kashmir issue! The Indian proposal for holding the second round
of talks for restoring air links and overflights has been accepted.
Pakistan has suggested December 1 and December 2 for talks. India
proposed the rail links between Lahore and Amritsar should be
restored and a new rail link be created between Khokhrapar in
Rajasthan and Munnabao in Pakistani Sind after the successful
conclusion of talks on air links.
Pakistan
has refused to relate the restoration of air services to restoration
of rail services. Pakistan has suggested separate talks on the
subject without linkages. Pakistan has refused to accept India's
proposal for an increase in the number of buses on the Amritsar-Lahore
route.
The Indian proposal for direct communication links between the
coast guards of the two countries on the pattern of connections
between the offices of the Directors General of Military Operations
has been accepted by Pakistan.
India's proposal to stop arresting fishermen of either country
within specific areas of the Arabian Sea has been accepted by
Pakistan with the additional suggestion that rules be made, or
a regime be established, under which arrested fishermen would
be released within a month.The Indian proposal of issuing visas
from temporary visa offices in cities other than New Delhi and
Islamabad has been accepted by Pakistan but subject to the condition
that the strength of the Pakistani mission be restored to 110
members as it existed before December 2001.
The Indian proposal to permit senior citizens of both countries
above 65 years to cross the Wagah border on foot has been accepted.
But one wonders how many 65-year-olds would want to avail of this
facility, and how it would impact Indo-Pakistan relations.
The Indian proposal for restoring a pre-1965 ferry service between
Karachi and Mumbai has been put into a spin by Pakistan with the
response that this is an important item that can be discussed
during composite political dialogue between the two sides.
It
must be mentioned Pakistan has desired the suggestion regarding
the restoration of rail links between Rajasthan and Sindh also
be discussed at the composite dialogue. India's offer of providing
free medical treatment to 20 more ailing Pakistan children has
resulted in a Pakistani response where it offered treatment to
20 Indian children.
In
addition, Pakistan has offered to provide special medical facilities
for individuals from Jammu and Kashmir who have suffered from
the operations of Indian security forces, including wounded and
rape victims.
It is Pakistan Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokhar's introductory remarks
and comments during his press conference of October 29 that should
be taken particular note of, as they manifest the political attitude
underlying Islamabad's responses.
First of all, he said the Indian proposals were nothing new and
were generally a rehashed version of Pakistani suggestions for
normalisation in support of dialogue on substantive matters.
Khokhar said the nature of the Indian proposals clearly showed
New Delhi was not sincere about restoring peace with Pakistan.
He went on to describe the proposals as piecemeal proposals not
addressing substantive issues".
In
actual fact, he said, the Indian proposals were a purely tactical
move aimed at diverting attention from the issue of Kashmir and
were an exercise in public relations. Pakistan was responding
to these proposals being aware of India's motivations and insincere
objectives, he said. Some proposals, if implemented, would perhaps
marginally help in creating a positive environment.
He
asserted Pakistan "does not just desire a dialogue with India".
Pakistan wants "negotiation on matters of substance and at
dispute".
What then are the prospects of these proposals helping the process
of normalising India-Pakistan ties? Except for Pakistan's agreement
to hold talks on restoring air links and overflights, and its
agreement to allow senior citizens to cross the Wagah border on
foot, responses to all other proposals are politicised and would
involve controversial discussions.
These
discussions will drift. While the latest initiative has been generally
welcomed by important powers, they are clearly of the opinion
that these do not address substantive issues in India-Pakistan
relations. While on the face of it, these proposals have been
accepted by Pakistan with conditionalities, they would contribute
only marginally to creating an environment conducive to a full-fledged
dialogue.
While not moving away from New Delhi's determination to fight
cross-border terrorism, India should have been bold in its latest
initiative. It should have proposed resumption of official-level
talks or the composite dialogue on a date of mutual convenience
this winter. It should have indicated the government's willingness
to discuss serious issues, particularly Kashmir.
India
should have agreed to restore air links and overflights on the
basis of full reciprocity. It should have indicated its willingness
to focus on discussions to reduce and eliminate military confrontation
at Siachen and on the Line of Control in Kashmir.India should
have dovetailed its 12 proposals as an adjunct to a substantive
framework of negotiations.
This
would have served the twin purposes of convincing the Pakistani
people of India's sincerity, and convincing the world that New
Delhi is serious about restoring peace and normalcy with Pakistan
and that it desires to start substantive discussions with that
country.
What has happened instead between India and Pakistan in terms
of these proposals is a futile diplomatic foxtrot.
The
writer is a former Indian foreign secretary.- Courtesy Indian
Express
