Shaheen
Sehbai
Pakistan faces a moment of truth on Nov 8 when the newly elected
National Assembly convenes for its inaugural session, split right
in the middle between strong and motivated opponents of General
Pervez Musharraf and a messy hodge podge of opportunists and turncoats,
huddled together in the hope of sharing some crumbs of political
power with the Generals.
General
Musharraf should be given credit for summoning enough courage to
call the elected Assembly to session on Nov 8 but has he calculated
the grave risks involved? So far he has been misled by his advisers
and intelligence brigades as none of their calculations and assessments
have proved right. Musharraf wanted a hung Parliament but he got
a House which could hang him. He wanted a King’s Party but
what he could manage was an assortment of individuals, who could
dump him on the drop of a hat, if they see him losing control.
The
Politicians, in and outside Pakistan, have so far played their cards
reasonably well and have frustrated the military plans to break
up the main parties to consolidate the King’s Party. Rough
calculations show the new House is divided right in the Middle,
but the Opposition strength of PPP, MMA and PML-N is a solid block
with few who would jump ship. The King’s group is a grand
jamboree of 20 groups and individuals, each one of whom is grinding
his/her teeth to extract the maximum price from the seekers and
keepers of power.
All
kinds of pressures, tactics, carrots, sticks, threats, arm twisting,
cajoling, pampering has
been resorted to by the official pushers of the King’s Party
and what they have come up so far would not satisfy General Musharraf
or the junta a bit. The PPP and the MMA have stood firm on their
ground and this has blocked the landslide which the ISI may have
hoped for and promised Musharraf. Now everybody’s neck is
on line as the Assembly gathers with the politicians making their
bid to regain the power forcibly taken away from them through the
barrel of the gun in 1999.
In
this period of extreme caution, the heaviest responsibility devolves
on the politicians as any wrong move could throw them back into
oblivion with the Army taking full control and scrapping all that
has happened in the last few months. Through their art of politics,
elected representatives have first to ensure that the point of no
return is not reached and the process does not hit a brick wall.
They
have to ensure that enough room is available to the Army, its supporters
and stake holders to keep trying different options, not going back
to square 1, as they say. So the first job is to keep the Assembly
in tact, no matter who takes over power. Any political government,
be it of 20 different groups and individuals cobbled together, would
be better than a junta which rules by decree and uses the stick.
The
composition of the new House is such that almost a veto power will
stay with the combined Opposition of PPP, MMA and PML-N, even if
everybody else joins the government. That in itself would be a great
source of strength to straighten out the issues which have got complicated
over the years, thoroughly messed up by the army in the last three
years.
So
the best strategy for the mainstream parties like PPP, PML-N and
MMA is not to strive for the government at this time but let the
King’s Party form a weak government, led by their loner candidate
Zafarullah Jamali, or anyone else. The new government would be unable
to deliver anything and the longer this weak government survives,
the more the Opposition would gain by default. No one is hoping
or wishing that the Jamali government would see its first anniversary.
The
second and the most crucial objective of these parties with a major
stake in popular electoral politics, is to get the sovereignty of
the Constitution and Parliament restored, even if in bits and pieces,
if the situation so dictates. Asking the Army to swallow one very
bitter and poisonous pill may be counter-productive. The first task
is to nudge the Army out of the Houses where power rests.
Once
the political set up has been revived and starts regaining control,
the major players Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif and MQM’s
Altaf Hussain, who first announced to end his self exile and then
withdrew the decision, should return to the country. Obviously they
will be coming back after some understanding is reached.
After
the new political government gets going, those in power would be
eager to strike better deals with the major Opposition leaders,
now in exile, if for nothing else, for their own survival. That
is how a step by step approach could take the process further.
The
next step could be to persuade General Musharraf to take his military
uniform off and stay as a civilian president, elected by the due
process provided in the Constitution. This may not be acceptable
to Musharraf now but a deal could be struck that instead of a five
year term, he should present himself for elections in say two years
starting now, as he would by then have completed a five-year term
which started in 1999.
All
this could be written in a big package deal and signed by all parties
so that a stable cooling off period sets in.
November
8 will mark the beginning of a new test for every one. Musharraf
has put everything he has on the line because if this experiment
fails, his term is over and the army will not allow him a second
chance to mess it up again. He will be history.
But
with him will also go the chance for the politicians to regain control
and push the army back to where it belongs, in the barracks or on
the frontiers. Any setback now could throw back the clock by years.
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