Musharraf may have
to work for a stable coalition with Benazir's PPP
A Divided House
is Bad News for Everybody
Special
SAT Report
ISLAMABAD:
The National Assembly of Pakistan, which meets on Nov 8 is divided
in a way it is almost impossible for the King’s Party, supporting
General Pervez Musharraf, to form a stable government. The main
three-party Opposition, PPP, MMA and PML-N, is solid and has almost
the same numbers as all the others combined.
The
total strength of the National strength is 342 of which any majority
coalition or party will need 172 to form a government. None has
it so far.
It
would be an almost impossible task for PML-Q or General Musharraf
to bring together and keep all the others parties, groups and
individuals together to keep the government, analysts said.
As
evident from the numbers, PPP, PML-N and MMA alone have 160 seats,
with PPP having 81, PML-N 19 and MMA 60. To these 7 FATA MNAs
who were elected on MMA tickets/support can be added without a
doubt. Two or three other FATA may also join in but a total strength
of 167 is already available.
As
against this, PML-Q has 118 seats. With 17 of MQM (Altaf) and
16 of Leghari's National Alliance this figure goes up to 151.
If all the other smaller parties, PML-Pagara, Junejo, Ijaz ul
Haq, PPP-Sherpao, PTI of Imran Khan, PAT of Tahir ul Qadri, MQM
(Haqeeqi) and Balochistan's JWP and BNP are added, the total comes
to 167, or equal to the Opposition alliance.
Then,
only 5 FATA, 2 Independents will remain outside the fold and one
election is yet to be held.
To
obtain the magical figure of 172, the King's Party has to get
either all the remaining 5 FATA or 3 FATA and 2 Independents,
who it may be noted, chose to stay in their Independent capacity
despite the official deadline to join any party three days after
the announcement of the official results.
Even
if a government is formed, it would be the weakest government
with the barest majority in the House and could be toppled any
time on any issue. This would not be a happy or acceptable situation
for General Musharraf or the Army.
So
they have to look for new options and a more stable coalition
and in that scenario, the only possible and viable option, which
would be acceptable to the US and the West would be a coalition
under PPP.
It
may not be a surprise if Musharraf tries to concede more demands
of the PPP to bring Benazir Bhutto and Asif Zardari on board.
But what a climb down it would be.
The
break up of parties in the House is as follows:
PML
(QA) 118
PPP 81
MMA 60
PML (N) 19
MQM (Altaf) 17
NA (Leghari) 16
PML (Pagara) 5
PML (Junejo) 3
PPP (Sherpao) 2
BNP 1
JWP (Bugti) 1
PAT (Tahirul Qadri) 1
PML (Ijaz ul Haq) 1
PTI (Imran Khan) 1
MQM (Haqeeqi) 1
Independents 2
FATA 12
Election Pending 1
