Strategy of Positive
Unilaterlism Offers Many Options
By
C. Raja Mohan
AFTER MAKING a big impression with its offer of a package of confidence-building
measures last week to Pakistan, the Government must now be prepared
to sustain this initiative irrespective of the nature of Islamabad's
reaction.
If
Pakistan does respond positively to some of the proposals it should
be relatively easy to build on the momentum. But if Pakistan's
reaction is essentially negative, India must be in a position
to unveil another series of moves. If India's emerging strategy
towards Pakistan might be called "positive unilateralism",
the core assumption underlying it must be that New Delhi will
not take "no" for an answer from Islamabad.
Positive
unilateralism is a national strategy that tries to engineer a
substantive shift in the difficult ties with another nation over
the long term. It avoids exclusive reliance on formal negotiations
and bets on unilateral actions that could create better conditions
under which traditional negotiations could succeed.
In
relation to Pakistan, this would call for both patience on the
strategic objectives — end to cross-border terrorism and
a normalisation of bilateral relations — and a relentless
pursuit of small steps each of which will make at least a small
difference to the lives of the people across the border.
The
first priority for India is to find ways to implement some of
the proposals it had unveiled last week unilaterally. For example,
India could unilaterally let senior citizens cross the border
on foot.
Economic
cooperation is particularly amenable to unilateral action. Instead
of continuing to negotiate tariff reductions in a multilateral
or bilateral format, India could unilaterally announce greater
market access to a range of exportable goods in Pakistan. Can
Islamabad say no? Can Pakistan refuse an Indian offer to start
negotiations immediately on the issues relating an overland pipeline
from Iran to India through its territory?
Can
Pakistan say no to immediate talks at the official level on nuclear
and military confidence-building measures? If India and Pakistan
want to be treated as serious nuclear weapons powers, they need
to have a mechanism for continuous consultations on issues relating
to military stability. Why should this important issue be tied
up to the so-called composite dialogue?
If the Government begins to think creatively, the strategy of
positive unilateralism offers a huge number of diplomatic options
to retain the political initiative vis-à-vis Pakistan and
begin the process of chipping away at the compulsive hostility
that dominates the military establishment in Pakistan.
India's
strategy of positive unilateralism could be applied with even
greater effectiveness towards Bangladesh. In one of his farewell
addresses in Dhaka, the departing Indian High Commissioner, Mani
Lal Tripathi, came up with a litany of grievances against the
host Government. The list included Dhaka's refusal to cooperate
on terrorism and the tendency in Bangladesh to attribute outlandish
motives to every Indian action.
India's
frustrations in dealing with Bangladesh are real. But the time
has come for India stop complaining and start taking decisions
that could help change the relationship without expecting immediate
reciprocity.
One
good example is the recent Indian offer to deliver oil directly
to Khulna in western Bangladesh rather than at Chittagong on the
far eastern coast. This could help Dhaka save on transportation
costs of energy to western Bangladesh. India could even think
of bigger and bolder steps that could make huge economic sense
to Dhaka.
For
example, it could offer to supply oil to Bangladesh without demanding
payment in hard currency. The receipts owed by Dhaka to New Delhi
could be put in an escrow account that could be used to promote
Indian investments and other mutually beneficial projects in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh could save on dollar payments to import oil.
More
immediately, India is in a position to facilitate Dhaka's exports
to India by offering special treatment to Bangladeshi goods and
make it easier to narrow the trade gap that is so heavily in New
Delhi's favor.
The
talks on trade related issues last week between the two countries
appeared to have gone off reasonably well. What India needs is
political intervention at the highest level to give a big push
to transform the relations with Dhaka without a reference to the
immediate political difficulties.
When
relations between two nations are good, it is relatively easy
for them to take unilateral reciprocal actions that continually
upgrade the ties. That we have arrived at such a happy "virtuous
cycle" in relation to Sri Lanka was visible in the recent
visit of the Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Within
a few years, the relationship between New Delhi and Colombo has
emerged as a very privileged one, based on total trust and a willingness
on each side to go more than half way to address the concerns
of the other.
It
is important, however, to remember that the initial thrust for
this change in bilateral relations came from the Sri Lankan side
a few years ago. Positive unilateralism from Sri Lanka created
the conditions for a restructuring of bilateral relations.
While
India's interlocutors in Islamabad and Dhaka are certainly not
easy to deal with, the strategy of positive unilateralism offers
New Delhi ways of pushing its relationship with these two countries
in a different direction.
Even
if India's unilateral actions do not produce immediate results,
the very act of trying by India would have its own positive consequences
over the long term.-The Hindu
