By
Ravi Visvesvaraya Prasad
RUSSIA'S powerful industries and science minister, Ilya Klebanov,
visited India last week in preparation for Vladimir Putin's forthcoming
visit. A major item on Klebanov's agenda was the finalization
of the long-dragged-out negotiations for the acquisition of the
aircraft carrier, Admiral Gorshkov, to replace the aging
Viraat.
Even
though Russia is gifting Gorshkov free of charge as it is being
phased out after a fire, and India is only to bear the cost of
upgradation (estimated at Rs 30 billion), the acquisition has
been vehemently criticized by a former chief of naval staff, Admiral
J. G. Nadkarni. He considers Gorshkov to be far too large; at
45,000 tonnes and with a deep draught it would not be able to
enter Mumbai harbour.
Nadkarni
added: "Apart from basing and refitting problems, no naval
chief will be willing to risk such a high value ship in the Arabian
Sea in any conflict with Pakistan. Karwar port will not be ready
for another ten years. Basing Gorshkov on the east coast is not
a solution. A conflict can erupt at short notice and be over before
Gorshkov arrives."
Admiral
Nadkarni's apprehension regarding the vulnerability of aircraft
carriers to missile, aircraft and submarine attacks is shared
by Andrew Marshall, Director, Pentagon's Office of Net
Assessment.
A
wargame Marshall conducted a few weeks ago had China attacking
Taiwan in 2005, and USA rushing to Taiwan's defence. One finding
of his simulation was: "But the Pentagon's array of wonder
weapons came up short. Three aircraft carriers had to stay so
far offshore -- out of range of Chinese anti-ship missiles --
that their jets could not even reach mainland China." Marshall
then prepared a secret report for President Bush, "Strategy
for a Long Peace – A Quick Look" in which he argued
for de-emphasizing the US Navy's current reliance on aircraft
carriers and recommended a cut in their numbers.
According
to Commander Fred Levien, Chairman, Information Warfare Curriculum,
USA's Naval Postgraduate School, a major reason for the vulnerability
of large ships is the recent deployment by Russia of its revolutionary
Shkval torpedo which uses supercavitation technology. Shkval,
Russian for "Squall", has a range of over sixty miles
and an underwater speed of more than three hundred miles per hour,
more than five times that of any torpedo
deployed by NATO.
Jack
Spencer of Heritage Foundation and David Miller of Jane's International
Defense Review stated that it was so fast that even if a targeted
NATO aircraft carrier or submarine detected an incoming Shkval,
it would not have enough time to evade it or launch a counterattack.
Shkval
even has the capability to strike the US Navy's Polaris submarines
before they can launch their intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Stating that a single $ 200,000 Shkval could cause fatalities
to all the ten thousand servicemen on board each US aircraft carrier,
Levien added: "Fitted with a nuclear warhead, Shkval could
obliterate entire US naval battle groups and abruptly blow a hole
in USA's carrier-based air superiority doctrine…Shkval could
tilt the entire existing geopolitical balance of power."
Another
Russian weapon that NATO navies currently have no defence against
is the SS-N-22 Sunburn missile, launched from Sovremenny destroyers.
In her testimony before the US House of Representatives Armed
Services Committee, leading defence expert June Teuffel painted
the following scenario: "Nine feet above water, traveling
at twice the speed of sound, with a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead,
the radar-guided Sunburn missile can weave its way through smaller
ships until it reaches its real target - a US aircraft carrier.
At the last instant, it would pop up from the ocean's surface,
smash into the side of the carrier and set off a nuclear explosion
six times as powerful as Hiroshima. The US Navy has nothing that
can stop it."
If
India is to assert itself as the regional superpower, it is imperative
for it to exert its influence over strategic maritime "choke-points"
such as the Malacca Straits and the Persian Gulf.
Moreover,
India should beware of China's plans to extend its influence in
South Asian waters, as advocated by the "active offshore
defense", "blue-water navy" and "surprise
guerrilla attacks at sea" policies formulated by its former
naval chief and vice chairman of its Central Military Committee,
Liu Huaqing. China is closely involved in Pakistan's new deep
sea port at Gawadar.
China
has already established an extensive signals intelligence facility
on Great Coco Island,
just a few miles from Andamans. This will enable it to monitor
Indian missile launches from Balasore and rocket and satellite
launches from Sriharikota. China is also associated with Myanmar
naval bases at Munaung, Hainggyi, Katan Island, and Zadaikyi Island.
China
is constructing road and waterway links from its southern Yunan
province to Myanmar's Yangon port, which will provide it direct
access to the Bay of Bengal, obviating the need to cross the Malacca-Singapore
straits.
Most
worrisome for India is that China is purchasing large numbers
of Shkvals and Sunburns from Russia. Deliveries already made include
forty Shkvals, four Kilo-class diesel-powered attack submarines
and two Sovremenny destroyers equipped with SS-N-22 Sunburn missiles,
Sa-17 "Grizzly" anti-aircraft missiles and "Helix-A"
Ka-28 antisubmarine helicopters. Grizzly flies at 4,000 feet per
second and can hit an airplane flying 15 miles high, 35 miles
away.
India
should therefore move aggressively to extend its maritime influence
from brown water to green water and then blue water. In order
to achieve this, it will need a formidable naval air presence,
supported by oilers, AWACs and refueling aircraft.
The
Afghanistan campaign has clearly shown that the age of aircraft
carriers is not over, contrary to what Nadkarni and Marshall may
think. Having been denied the use of air bases by neighboring
countries, America had to rely on its aircraft carriers in the
Arabian Sea to launch its bombers for bombarding Afghanistan.
Liu Huaqing, regarded as one of the leading naval strategists
of the present era, has placed aircraft carriers at the centre
of his "blue water navy" doctrine.
Today,
Russia has some of the most advanced naval equipment and they
would be available relatively cheaply in view of its ongoing financial
crisis. In order to strengthen our green water and blue water
capabilities, India should take advantage of the visits of Klebanov
and Putin to acquire the Gorshkov immediately.
India
should also acquire squadrons of SU-33 and MIG 29-k aircraft that
can take off and land from Gorshkov, especially since our Sea
Harriers are nearing the end of their useful life. India should
immediately leverage its special relationship with Russia for
manufacture under license of advanced equipment such as Sovremenny
destroyers; Kilo 636 and Victor III submarines; Bars, Akula, Antyey
and Oscar class submarines; and Shkvals and Sunburns.
The author heads a group which analyzes C4ISRT (Command, Control,
Communications and computers Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance
and Targetting) in South Asia. He is also a consultant to the
Centre for Monitoring Chinese Military Activities.- Courtesy The
Hindustan Times
