Shaheen
Sehbai
Politicians
appear to have learnt some lessons in the wilderness they were thrown
for years by the Army junta. They have played the game according
to the rules laid down by the junta because they had hardly any
other choice.
They can justify the “compromises” they have made by
explaining that it was the “Doctrine of Necessity” which
forced them to keep the process going, so that, inch by inch, bit
by bit, they chip away the powers of the men holding all the barrels
and the guns. Even becoming temporary turncoats, or “lotas”
as they are called, was in the larger interest of civilian rule
and democracy. Had there not been a cricket team of these ‘lotas’,
transfer of power would have eluded everybody.
Thus
an overview of the past few weeks would be quite satisfying for
the men and women playing the political poker game. The main players,
Benazir Bhutto, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, Nawaz Sharif and Altaf Hussain,
have all done well by that yardstick. Benazir has been tactful and
cunning of them all, keeping away from making any firm commitment,
staying firm on declared principles, whatever they may be, and yet
ensuring that the pro-junta party just got enough numbers to form
a government while the Opposition also stayed formidable and capable
of turning the tables whenever so needed.
The
religious right, led by Qazi Hussain Ahmed, has also played it right
so far, raising all the right questions, making all the loud noises
but not loud enough to scare the junta away from its declared course.
The MMA has also stayed away from joining the pro-junta coalition,
which could have embarrassed General Musharraf and his American
friends, to the point of reacting in panic. Qazi has the confidence
of a huge controlling share in the Upper House, the Senate, where
he can embarrass any one, any time. He will have a whole province
to run, as he likes, again giving him immense clout and room on
the ground to be nasty, if the junta gets nasty to him and his men.
Even
the pro-junta collection of individuals, now called a political
party by the name of PML-QA, or easier still PML-Mush, has behaved
sensibly by demonstrating that although it was being called all
the names for being collaborators, when it came to the crucial question
of “Us vs Them” or “politicians vs the generals”,
the party stood by its clan. Even a shy perpetual “fixer”
Choudhry Shujaat Hussain of Gujrat, got up in the new Parliament
to state, very briefly, that he stood by the agreement with other
Opposition parties to restore the “sovereignty of the Parliament.”
The new Prime Minister, a loner Zafrullah Jamali, counseled his
politician colleagues to be patient as he reminded them that “Rome
was not built in a day” meaning that he will need his time
to boot out the jack boots, but he sure will, given the time and
support.
All
this leads to the conclusion that so far the politicians have handled
the junta well and have not given the generals any chance to strike
back saying their guidelines were being violated. Now a civilian
set up is in place, although the Generals have tried to guarantee
that they have enough moles in the new cabinet, that they control
all the purse strings, that nothing moves unless cleared by them
first, that all the bricks that come their way will be blocked by
the civilians, and that all the bouquets will be gladly received
and acknowledged.
But
it has to be made abundantly clear that in the present set up the
brunt of the responsibility of all decisions and judgments will
still have to be taken by the Generals as they are the ones who
are running the show, with remote controls and front men in the
middle. The politicians have joined them to share the burden but
they will not be making crucial decisions for some time and so they
should not be held accountable for these decisions. Mr. Jamali has
a very strong Opposition to face in Parliament and if the General
thrusts unpalatable agendas down his throat, he may not be able
to take it for long. A point will soon come when Mr. Jamali will
get back to the Generals to either let him handle the show and be
responsible, or he should be relieved and those who are calling
the shots must come and face the music in the House.
Given
his background and upbringing as a tribal chieftain, Jamali is known
to be a quick decision maker, an honest broker and a fair judge.
He is said to have earned the nick name of “Jabal Khan”
or Mountain Khan, for meeting all his challenges firmly and with
confidence. The way he snubbed someone, anyone, in the early moments
of his acceptance speech immediately after his election in the House
as leader, when a Mobile telephone started ringing, showed he is
also short of patience and when in control he will not tolerate
any non-sense or distractions.
For
the moment Jabal Khan has accepted all the moles of the junta in
his cabinet as right now he has to move the process forward and
get the politicians back into the driving seat after years of smear
campaigns and maligning. When the heat rises in Parliament and the
time gets near for General Musharraf to come to the House and face
those very political beings whom he has been scorning ever since
his October coup, Jamali’s bargaining power would have immensely
increased. Musharraf will have to concede a lot and the more time
Jamali can spend as Prime Minister, the more difficult it will become
for Musharraf to rollback the process.
A quiet
and tenacious battle of nerves and wits has thus begun and all democratic
forces must, at this point, join the pro-democracy side. They should
avoid mindless political bickering for petty positions and useless
posts because all positions and posts will stay worthless as long
as the junta keeps control over the process.
A few
‘lotas’ may have jump started the bandwagon heading
towards civilian supremacy. A few inconsequential compromises here
and there may keep the process moving forward. This may not be a
big price for any one, given the alternatives, none of which favor
the politicians, civilians or democracy.
Politicians
have got a new lease of life to stage a comeback. They are behaving
responsibly so far and they have the support of every one in this
uphill task.
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