Vajpayee Confounding
Critics by his Kashmir Moves
By
Ajoy Bose
PRIME
MINISTER Atal Bihari Vajpayee continues to confound his critics
by displaying political skills when least expected. His latest
double peace initiative with Pakistan as well as with the separatist
groups in the Kashmir valley comes at a time when there was widespread
public perception that the Government had thrown up its hands
on both fronts.
Indeed, with crucial Assembly elections round the corner, the
last thing anyone expected was a bold move on contentious issues
like Pakistan and Kashmir, both of which have the potential to
burn the BJP in the polls.
Yet, despite his laid-back and self-effacing style, there is clever
political brain ticking inside the Prime Minister's head. A closer
examination of the two initiatives would reveal that they have
been crafted in a manner which, while giving the impression of
exploring fresh avenues, also adequately covers Mr Vajpayee's
back in case things go wrong. In fact, regardless of success or
failure, these initiatives are bound to further strengthen the
image of the Prime Minister at home and abroad as a man of peace,
who is determined to defuse confrontation regardless of the odds.
The new Pakistan peace initiative, for instance, is a classic
example of Mr Vajpayee's growing diplomatic finesse. Clearly,
the most publicised component of the latest proposals to Islamabad
is the offer to resume cricketing ties - a popular obsession in
the subcontinent. This has, at last, corrected the ludicrous stance
adopted by New Delhi over the past few years that playing cricket
with Pakistan would somehow put this country at a disadvantage
even though the two countries continued to engage in other sports.
The resumption of cricketing ties with Pakistan along with the
offer to provide specialised medical facilities to needy children
across the border are gestures which the Pakistani regime can
hardly turn down. Without conceding anything on the diplomatic
front, they earn important brownie points for the Government at
home and abroad underlining its desire to boost people-to-people
contacts across the border.
Similarly, the expansion of transport links between the two countries,
including the audacious suggestion of a bus service between the
two parts of Kashmir divided by the Line of Control and a boat
to Karachi, underlines the confidence of the Government in breaking
down past barriers in the subcontinent. However, it remains to
be seen how many people on either side will catch the bus across
the LoC or the ferry service. But symbolically, the Prime Minister
has scored an important point that India has nothing to conceal
from Pakistan or the world.
Indeed, it will be interesting to see Islamabad's response to
the proposal of expanding communications between India and Pakistan.
So far, the Musharraf regime has been pointedly dragging its feet
on the resumption of air-links, particularly over-flights, on
flimsiest grounds. It is an open secret that knowing India's keenness
to reduce the financial burden on its carriers as well facilitate
easier access to Afghanistan, Pakistan has tried to use the resumption
of air-links as a bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations with
India. However, it may become difficult for Islamabad to sustain
this wholly illogical stance without pushing itself to a corner
in the international arena.
Most importantly, the Prime Minister and his aides now seem to
have learnt a bitter lesson that it is completely counter-productive
to rush for summit-level talks without enough preparations on
the ground. Given the propensity of Mr Vajpayee and his Government
to get needlessly trapped by Pakistani filibustering at media-hyped
summits that has got them into all kinds of problems, it is a
refreshing change that New Delhi has started to move forward on
the surer terrain of closer people-to-people contacts with Pakistan,
keeping the door ajar for diplomatic dialogue but refusing to
sit at the table till some kind of realistic agenda is first prepared.
The peace initiative with the Hurriyat Conference in Kashmir is
complementary to the series of confidence building measures suggested
by the Government to Islamabad. There is little doubt that the
move is geared to counter the Pakistani claims that the latest
set of Indian proposals was a ruse to brush the core issue of
Kashmir under the carpet.
With
a democratically elected Government in place and on-going negotiations
with the most credible umbrella of separatist groups in the Kashmir
valley, the Prime Minister can, with considerable justification,
scoff at talks emanating from Islamabad about his Government neglecting
the aspirations of the Kashmiri people.
More importantly, by appointing Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani
as the chief interlocutor in negotiations with the Hurriyat, Mr
Vajpayee appears to have played a deft hand, killing several birds
with one stone. First, this has elevated negotiations with the
Hurriyat to a top priority level and does serve to highlight the
importance attached by the Government to this enterprise.
Then,
it has also streamlined what till recently was the rather ad-hoc
and chaotic multi-channel approach to the Hurriyat where a succession
of leaders and luminaries were involved in wooing the separatists.
In the past, the paramount importance of Mr Advani and the Home
Ministry in any kind of dialogue with separatist groups in Kashmir
tended to be overlooked. Although Mr Advani and officials in his
Ministry were no doubt consulted, they were rarely in charge of
the earlier peace initiatives to defuse the militant movement
in the State.
This,
apart from making little sense considering that it is the Home
Ministry which is in charge of law and order, also invariably
resulted in conflicting approaches between the Ministry and peacemakers
in Kashmir, further compounding the difficult task of engaging
the separatists in a meaningful dialogue.
The Prime Minister’s passing the ball to the Home Minister
will also serve the purpose of shutting up hardliners claiming
to be in the Advani camp if the negotiations with the Hurriyat
Conference fail to take off or are accompanied by a fresh round
of terrorist violence.
Moreover,
whenever the big two in the Government have acted in cohesion
in the past, they have been invariably effective. This public
display of trust in the Deputy Prime Minister certainly does not
harm Mr Vajpayee, especially when crucial Assembly elections are
round the corner.
Judging from the welcome that the new peace initiatives have received
at home and abroad, the Prime Minister's gamble seems to be paying
off. It is true that extremist fringes in the Shiv Sena and the
Vishwa Hindu Parishad have accused Mr Vajpayee of a sellout to
Pakistan and the Kashmiri separatists.
But
these are rantings of a section which have little or no nationwide
appeal. Mr Vajpayee seems to have once again proved why he has
emerged as the country's tallest leader since the demise of Mrs
Indira Gandhi. - Pioneer
