Opportunity to Revive India-Pakistan
talks May be Lost
'The Window of
Renewed Political Engagement May Shut Soon'
C. Raja Mohan
INDIA,
Pakistan and the United States are in danger of losing an important
opportunity to initiate a peace process in the Subcontinent that
has arisen from the recent decision in New Delhi to de-escalate
the ten-month-long military confrontation with Islamabad.
Unless
all three take steps quickly, the current political window for
a renewed political engagement between India and Pakistan could
shut amidst a potential rise in terrorist activity from across
the border.
Six
months ago, at the height of the military tensions between the
sub-continental rivals, few could have imagined the confluence
of positive circumstances in place today. India which launched
the biggest military mobilisation in its history has unilaterally
decided to scale it down. India has also succeeded in holding
credible elections in Jammu and Kashmir, widely acknowledged by
the international community as free and fair. The people of the
State have spoken, there is a new Government in charge and prospects
have never looked better for a productive dialogue between New
Delhi and Srinagar. Meanwhile, the elections to the National Assembly
in Pakistan, despite the pre-rigging by Pervez Musharraf, have
produced an unexpected political dynamism in Islamabad.
The
developments over the last few weeks have loosened, if only a
wee bit, the political knot in the Sub-continent that had tightened
since the December 13 attack on India's Parliament. From a situation
of near-war that could have turned nuclear, India and Pakistan
have moved towards a situation of no-war. But a peace process
that can be structured from the present situation remains elusive.
Continuing political drift in New Delhi, Islamabad and Washington
could easily allow the present opportunity to slip by. Small political
steps from all the three in the next few days could, however,
create the basis for a resumption of an India-Pakistan dialogue
in the not-too-distant future.
The US, which played a key role
in defusing the military tensions between India and Pakistan last
summer, has emerged as the principal channel of communication
between the two countries. At a time when all political dialogue
between India and Pakistan was suspended after the Agra summit
in July 2001, the Bush Administration has become the natural facilitator
of crisis management in the Subcontinent.
With the US attention now shifting
to the impending war against Iraq, it is not clear whether Washington
has the political energy to stay with what it started in the Subcontinent.
Although high-level visitors from the US continue to pour into
the Subcontinent, it remains to be seen if the Bush Administration
is mentally prepared to exercise what it takes to move the region
from crisis management to a peace process that could help resolve
the political conflict between India and Pakistan and normalise
bilateral relations.
Even if the US decides to stay
the course, its attempts to promote a process of reconciliation
in the region will not succeed unless it retains its focus on
ending terrorism. Washington will not be able to conjure up a
dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad by just urging for one.
For an India-Pakistan dialogue to
start and succeed, Washington must deliver on the promises it
made to India last summer. It was the assurance from the Bush
Administration (based on Gen. Musharraf's word in June) that Pakistan
will end cross-border infiltration on a permanent basis that led
to the first Indian steps towards de-escalation.
That promise remains unfulfilled.
More damaging has been the loss of American political credibility
in New Delhi. No one in the Government now even expects the Bush
Administration to maintain pressure on Islamabad to keep its word.
Nor is anyone in New Delhi raising the issue with the American
interlocutors. Having given up on the US, India has taken a
tough line on the resumption of a dialogue with Pakistan by linking
it to a cessation of cross-border terrorism.
The principal objective of the Bush
Administration in devoting a high level of diplomatic energy towards
the Subcontinent has been the avoidance of a nuclear war between
India and Pakistan. But the US should know more than anyone
else that nuclear stability in the region and cross-border terrorism
do not go together. It might be politically convenient for Washington
today to forget about the promises that Gen. Musharraf made in
June. But the continued stoking of terrorism by Pakistan can bring
the region back to the brink of war within no time.
The American proposals for a renewed
dialogue between India and Pakistan will have few takers in New
Delhi unless Washington visibly pressures Islamabad to end cross-border
terrorism. Until recently, the US was arguing that an India-Pakistan
dialogue must follow the cessation of cross-border infiltration
by Pakistan and military de-escalation by India. But now India
has unilaterally begun to de-escalate. Washington cannot expect
New Delhi to take steps towards a dialogue while Islamabad continues
with its sponsorship of terrorism in India.
While India is right to keep its
political focus riveted on ending cross-border terrorism, it risks
the danger of losing the political initiative in shaping the triangular
diplomacy with the US and Pakistan. To retain the upper hand,
India needs to outline a road map towards resumption of a dialogue
with Pakistan. There have been occasional hints from the Government
of a sequence of actions it could take in response to specific
actions from across the border. New Delhi needs to go public with
a checklist of actions from Pakistan and the Indian response to
them. Merely parroting the mantra that there will be no talks
until cross-border terrorism ends will put India increasingly
on the diplomatic defensive.
A new Government in Pakistan is expected
to be sworn in shortly. Despite all its obvious limitations of
operating in the shadow of Gen. Musharraf, the revival of the
post of Prime Minister in Pakistan has its own political consequences.
India would inevitably debate the prospect of doing business with
the new Government in Pakistan. But a favourable political decision
in New Delhi would depend on the expressed commitment of the new
Prime Minister that he abides by the promises of Gen. Musharraf
on January 12 that Pakistani soil will not be used to promote
terrorism anywhere in the world, and that of early June that infiltration
will permanently end. That is the least New Delhi would expect
from the new Government in Islamabad.
If the new civilian Government of
Pakistan takes a step further down the road and agrees to normal
trading relations with India, the prospect for an early India-Pakistan
dialogue could brighten quickly. New Delhi has hinted in recent
days that the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, could travel
to Islamabad to attend a regional summit if Pakistan ends its
self-defeating policy of no-trade with India.
There can be no sensible strategy
for economic renewal in Pakistan that does not include expanded
trade with India, the largest market in the region.
If
the new Government in Pakistan recognises this economic self-interest,
or the international community which is pouring billions of dollars
of aid into Pakistan persuades it to do so, renewed political
contact between New Delhi and Islamabad might be at hand. And
that could set the stage for a resumption of India-Pakistan dialogue.
- The Hindu
