Rhetoric &
Reality in Jammu & Kashmir after the polls
Sumer
Kaul
TOP
leaders of the BJP seem to be rejoicing over the J&K elections.
Indeed, their broad smiles and euphuistic statements present a
never-seen-before spectacle of a party celebrating not only the
defeat of an ally but its own debacle. Those committed to echoing
the Establishment line may say that the celebration underlines
the BJP's democratic high-mindedness.
A
more credible interpretation would be that the self-congratulation
is really aimed at impressing western powers in the Vajpayee government's
continuing quest for good-boy certificates from them. Victory
of ballot over bullet, triumph of democracy, a vote for peace,
a slap on the face of terrorists these have been the predictable
cliches with which BJP leaders have laced their reactions to the
elections in this long-beleaguered state.
Whatever
their calculations in putting up a brave front, they have in fact
reasons to be worried about the denouement. That the party drew
a blank in the valley is not surprising, nor did anyone quite
expect them to score in Ladakh. What surprised observers, and
must come as a goodly shock to the party, is the drubbing it got
in Jammu.
The
dramatic crash in the fortunes of its ally in the NDA, the National
Conference, from 57 seats in 1996 to 28, may not have been all
that unwelcome to the BJP if the NC's loss had been their gain;
after all, their poll strategists had aligned with the anti-NC
Jammu State Morcha and otherwise gone hammer and tongs at the
Abdullah dispensation in the belief that the region's dissatisfied
and largely Hindu population would shift their loyalty to the
BJP.
The
Jammu voters did disown the NC but favoured, not the BJP but its
principle bete noire, the Congress. While the BJP's tally in the
state is all of one, the Congress has pole-vaulted to twenty.
Pointer
no. 1: People in J&K prefer Congress to the BJP; Pointer no.
2: Hindu voters will not necessarily vote for the BJP not even
in what the party considers its strongholds, in this case supported
by evidence of almost all previous elections. Much as party apologists
may try to explain that the anti-vote was because of the NC company
it kept at the Centre (which in reverse is exactly how the NC,
with greater credibility, explains its own poor showing) the two
obvious pointers mentioned above cannot but tend to undermine
the BJP's confidence in the upcoming election in Gujarat. But
even if the circumstances and what the party perceives as a "Hindu
awakening" in that state work in BJP's favour, there is no
such pressure-cooker sentiment in the ten other states slated
to go to polls next year.
And
if things go wrong for the party in so many states, what will
be its fate in the Lok Sabha elections in 2004? Premature perhaps
but these thoughts must worry the party faithfuls. Be that as
it may, there are other questions the J&K elections have thrown
up that transcend the fate of the BJP, questions that concern
national integrity and security and must, therefore, concern the
Government of India. At the base of these questions is the exit
of the fundamentally pro-accession National Conference, and the
spectacular emergence of the new outfit called People's Democratic
Party led by the former Congress stalwart in the state, Mufti
Muhammed Sayeed who later became Home Minister in the anti-Congress
V.P.Singh government which included the BJP. In his present political
incarnation, Mufti Sayeed is not only ideologically anti-BJP but,
in terms of his party's poll platform, ideationally hovering somewhere
in between the pro-India and the Hurriyat mindsets in the state.
Given
the post-election abacus, it was immediately assumed that the
PDP and Congress would join hands, lure the requisite number of
independent and fringe groups like the Panthers party, and form
the government. At the time of writing, however, this likely permutation
and combination has run into hurdles, chiefly but not entirely
on the question of chief ministership. There are indications that
even the National Conference, which had proclaimed after the poll
results that it would sit in the opposition, is back in the fray.
How
the situation will untangle, if at all, should be clear in a day
or two, but whichever way the dice finally falls, it will be a
dicey situation. Even if a coalition is cobbled before the Constitutional
deadline by giving, as per the current coalition dharma(!), ministerial
berths to all the cohabitating MLAs, the underlying politics of
opportunism is sooner or later likely to set in motion the nationally
familiar perambulations (of Aaya Rams and Gaya Mohammads) in this
state as well. As things stand, however, chances are that the state
will come under Governor's rule. What an exquisite irony that
will be after the enthusiastic polls.
Long
before the first vote was cast in this high-visibility election
I wrote: "Far from settling anything for the better in the
state, the election and its outcome are likely to make the already
muddy waters of the Jhelum and the Ravi muddier still and, given
the devilish neighbour we have, bloodier too." Sadly, I have
been proved right on both counts.
In
terms of stable politics, to borrow from the American singer Harry
Belafonte, the situation is "as clear as mud". As for
blood and terror, 800 Indians, nearly 200 of them security personnel,
have been killed in the state in the last two months. When our
leaders glibly talk about victory of ballot over bullet, instead
of parroting the rhetoric, we should ask them to say it before
these 800 families!
Rubbing
salt over the wounds is the way the West has reacted to the admittedly
free and fair elections. Far from giving the subaltern-minded
Vajpayee dispensation the much-coveted good boy certificate, far
from seeing the elections as a reflection of the Kashmiris' No
to Pakistan, the West generally and the duplicitous Americans
in particular have lost no time in urging us to hold talks with
the wily dictatorial regime in Islamabad, never mind if it continues
to send its murderous mercenaries across the border. Indeed, going
by intercepts of radio communications between the terrorists and
their ISI masters, the Indian Army expects increased terrorist
attacks in the state. In short, bloody business as usual.
And
tragically for the people of Kashmir, and for India, this state
of affairs will go on as long as we have political, diplomatic
and strategic pygmies at the national helm.
