Shaheen
Sehbai
ALL
the signs in Islamabad are that General Pervez Musharraf is surrounded
by foes, wearing masks of friends and allies. He calls them Goofs.
The heartening thing is that he realizes his shortcoming but, disappointingly,
he is not doing anything about them. As a result he has been pushed
down a road which every one knows leads only to one destination ---
disaster.
The
nearer the October election gets, the bigger the mistakes Musharraf
is being compelled to commit. We all know that Musharraf did not intend
to do all this in the beginning. He was straight forward, frank and
candid, talked sense and was, above all, believable. He was accepted
as a military leader, or dictator, at home and abroad. All were optimistic
he would deliver on what he was promising.
Then
his Goofs took over as Musharraf started listening to them. He was
advised to appease the fanatic religious lobby and that took away
the charm liberals had seen in him. He was advised to banish his political
opponents into exile and that resulted in Nawaz Sharif and family
bundled out to Saudi Arabia. He was advised to form a ‘king’s
party’ which meant more embarrassment. He never sought any advice
from anyone on the U-Turn in Afghanistan, but his decision secured
his position with Washington and the West after Sept 11.
Then
he was stupidly advised to seek political legitimacy at home and that
took him down the referendum road, ending in loss of whatever credibility
that was left. When the standoff with India got serious, he once again
talked straight with the Americans on stopping infiltration in Kashmir
but was again misled by his goofy friends and started to chicken out,
invoking a stiff rebuke from Washington, a public one this time.
He then
listened to them to legislate against the two main political party
leaders, by limiting the terms of office of prime ministers, an obvious
sign of extreme insecurity. This one executive order was enough to
confirm that by now Musharraf had become another unpopular, self-perpetuating,
military autocrat who would do anything to stay in power.
Musharraf
cannot see (because he is surrounded), and his advisers would not
tell him, that the path he is treading is one on which all previous
dictators in Pakistan had gone and found, to their disbelief, that
they had lost, having done grievous damage to Pakistan’s polity
in the processs. Ayub Khan was hooted out with slogans of “Ayub
Kutta Hai Hai” (Dog Ayub, boo boo). Yahya Khan was booted out
unceremoniously by the army top brass itself. Zia ul Haq was sent
with a crate of mangoes to perform his last disappearing act on board
the American C-130.
Musharraf’s
socalled friends have left him a totally isolated man. Politicians,
naturally, abhor him. Some who thought he would boost them have also
realized their calculations were off the mark. Religious right and
liberal left do not trust him. The largely sympathetic Press is now
up in arms. The claims to allowing Press freedom seem hollow, by the
day. His own men in uniform are confused, if not divided yet. He has
to carry a pistol with him all the time.
But the
good news is that as long as this confusion lasts, Musharraf will
survive. Pakistani military is known to be disciplined and monolithic
but let it not be forgotten that these men have also ditched their
chiefs when they found them painted in a corner, like Yahya Khan in
1971 or Gen. Zia ul Haq whose death mystery was never resolved or
Jehangir Karamat recently during Nawaz Sharif’s last term. It
was after the ditching of Karamat that the top corps commanders vowed
not to let their chief down again, specially when pitched against
a politician. That is why Musharraf was crowned as top boss while
he was not even in the country.
The bad
news, however, is that this time Musharraf is pitched not against
any politician but his own angry colleagues and juniors, some booted
out by him and some still in uniform, waiting for their chance because
they think what Musharraf is doing is against national security. The
world, specially the West, starts getting fits reading stories of
Musharraf’s insecurity. The admission by two recently arrested
militants of Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, that they had planned to assassinate
Musharraf in late April, has added to the worst fears of the West.
The recent incident in Lahore, when a bunch of welcoming balloons
released by the hosts, hit the overhead power lines and exploded right
on top of the dais where Musharraf was making a speech, was a funny
and, in a way ironic, reminder to Musharraf and his panicked security
men, that explosions could happen anywhere, anytime.
No one
knows what awaits Pakistan should anything serious happen to Musharraf.
But the panic all around is clearly indicative of serious concerns
and every think tank in Washington DC is working on just one set of
calculations and permutations: What if Musharraf goes.
It would
be naïve for the Pakistani ruler to believe that he would get
away with the tricks his political advisers are up to. I vividly remember
a conversation with Musharraf’s Interior Minister, Moeenuddin
Haider, sometime in August of 2000, when he had called a few senior
journalists to his Islamabad office. I had asked him then who was
Musharraf’s main political adviser and the frank answer was “no
one”. When I reported the comment, Musharraf and Haider were
furious and Musharraf even reprimanded Haider for making the comment.
But the fact is without an adviser, they were getting along fine.
Now with goofs around, they are in a mess.
Still,
all may not have been lost as yet, if Musharraf and company could
remove the blinders and shake off their misplaced political ambitions.
He needs not goofs but sincere friends and he still has a chance to
go down in history as the man who tried to bring some order to Pakistan,
saved the country from falling over the precipice, controlled the
menace of fanaticism and religious extremism, made some friends in
the world, got democracy back on the track and quit with grace and
dignity, a la Malaysia’s Mahatir Mohammed, if he does so.
An unceremonious
exit would spell disaster not just for him but the country will be
jolted. A new military dictator will take over. By the time he gets
a grip, the country could start slipping. The world may react in an
unpredictable manner, fearing a nuclear state sliding into chaos or
wrong hands. Realizing this, Washington has started pushing a little
hard for some stable, elected system, but it seems ages away.
Somehow
the world was spared of nuclear disasters after the break up of the
Soviet Union, as saner people in saner places traded their nukes for
greenbacks and took off on the road to economic rehabilitation. Pakistan
does not have that stock of saner people yet.
