Will There be a
Russia-China-India Axis?
Kalyani Shankar
Will
an India, China and Russia triangular axis ever become a reality?
During the recent visit of the Russian President Putin to Beijing
and New Delhi, this subject had come into focus once again.
When
the then Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeni Primakov proposed a
triangular axis during his visit to New Delhi in 1998, there was
not much response from either China or India due to mutual suspicions
lingering from the cold war era. The Indian government did not
show much interest at that time as all efforts were towards building
up a stronger relationship with the U.S. However, it got a boost
when the three foreign Ministers -Yashwant Sinha (India), Igor
Ivanov (Russia) and Tang Jiaxuan (China) met on the sidelines
of the UN General Assembly last year. The three are likely to
meet once again at the same venue next year to take forward the
cooperation. Analysts now say that the growing US presence in
Central Asia and Afghanistan has compelled the three nations to
consider the Primakov proposal.
Beijing
has begun to take note of India after the Pokhran blast and its
liberalized economy. Russia wields enough power in both China
and India because it is a major military supplier to both. Who
will be affected by the new axis if it ever materializes? If it
is the US, could any one of these three countries individually
or collectively take on the only superpower? The answer is no.
The triangular axis is aimed now at protecting their own interests
if not against the unipolar world. Historically, if one looks
back, this was the vision of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru who had tried
to maintain good relations with both China and Russia.
He
wanted the three big countries to come together to remain powerful
in Asia. He had the vision to think of such a powerful axis. However,
the 1965 war had put an end to such concepts. Once there was rift
between India and China, Pakistan stepped in and China began to
help Pakistan in its missile program which already had the full
backing of the Americans.
India's
relationship with Russia flourished during the cold war period.
Even after the end of cold war, the relationship was maintained
as Russia proved to be a tested and trusted friend. Similarly
with China the relationship became smoother in the eighties during
the regime of Rajiv Gandhi. After the 1993 accord, contentious
issues like the border dispute were put aside and economic relations
were taken forward. Since then, there are continuous efforts to
maintain the relationship on both sides. The rationale for the
triangular concept at this juncture appears to be that the US
has been expanding its presence in the heart of Asia threatening
Russia's traditional importance in the region. Russia has already
lost its influence as a super power after the disintegration of
the Soviet Union in many parts of the world.
The
US, on the other hand, has emerged as a sole super power in the
post cold war era. The events after 9/11 has given the US the
opportunity to expand its sphere of influence in Russia's backyard.
The US used Pakistan and several central Asian countries to mount
an attack on the Taliban government to wipe out Al Qaeda. Now
it looks that the US presence in the region is likely to be of
a longer duration. This is not to Putin's liking. What are the
prospects of such an axis? First of all, at present there is little
real prospect of such an axis. All the three countries are now
building up relationship with the US. Washington too is not unwilling
to do so. Secondly, there is no strategic cooperation between
Russia and China while it is a different thing with New Delhi.
On the economic side, China is depending upon the US for its trade
while Russia does not want to confront the US at the global level.
Anyway Putin has his own problems like Chechnya. As far as India
is concerned it is still economically weak and does not have the
leadership to take on anyone.
Take
the case of China. Why would Beijing support such an axis? China
is currently increasing its own sphere of influence in the region
with its economic dominance. It is in the process of changing
its system, which is quite opposite to the Russians. It has also
been building its vassal states like Pakistan. The Chinese government
has helped Pakistan with its weapons program including nuclear
missiles. As a country with a largest landmass and highest population
in Asia, China sees itself to as the natural regional power in
Asia. Its recent entry into WTO amounts to its insistence on joining
the others to become a global partner. China's trade with the
US is much more than its trade with India.
Therefore
it may not be willing to share its influence with Russia and India.
One has to remember that Chinese are very deep. Would they forget
the letter written by Indian Prime Minister to the then US President
Bill Clinton after the Pokhran tests that China, rather than Pakistan
was the important factor for India's nuclear program
India
too sees itself as a growing economic power and the natural leader
in Asia. Its traditional rivalry with China and the fact it lost
the 1965 war makes it hesitant to enter any power sharing agreement
with Beijing. There are still many hawks in India who have not
forgotten the 1965 war and look at Beijing with suspicion.
China's
alliance with Pakistan against India has not helped matters. India
is the weakest among the three and comes nowhere near the other
two either in economic strength or military might. Last but not
the least, the pro American interests in India are becoming more
influential than before with the right wing BJP-led NDA government.
So
why would India rush to enter into an alliance with China and
Russia? Analysts feel that the threat of US infiltration into
the region might drive these three unlikely partners into one
camp but not just now. At best, there could be a limited cooperation
among the three countries on specific issues like trade and some
foreign policy issues pertaining to the region. At present the
US presence is not large enough to warrant such a move. Optimists
point out that a limited cooperation among the three cannot be
ruled out. Recent moves by the three show some common foreign
policy initiatives.
For
instance they hold similar views on Iraq. They are against the
US invasion on Iraq. Similarly, economic cooperation can be taken
to a new level. China need not be seen as a competitor to New
Delhi. There are some areas where the two can be complimentary
and supplementary. With Russia, the two can go on for different
reasons. Earlier, it was the cold war friendship and now it is
for mutual benefit. Ultimately, in the long term, it is the mutual
confidence which will help these three powers to play a larger
role in global politics.
