Shaheen
Sehbai
In
a display of an exaggerated sense of confidence, Pakistan's General
Musharraf made a potentially fatal mistake last week while announcing
major constitutional changes to take Pakistan for his guided tour
of democracy for the next five years.
At
his well attended news conference in which he announced the constitutional
package, Musharraf was asked a simple question about when his tenure
as President would begin. He was reluctant to answer, but one of
his flunkies obliged instantly by saying "after the October
elections." Then Musharraf, in a flush of exuberance, announced
that he would also remain Chief of Army Staff for the next five
years. There he made the blunder no one expected. He also realized
immediately that he had spoken out too much. But the cat was out
of the bag.
This
single announcement has brought the entire top leadership of the
Pakistan Army, just below Musharraf, to a single platform for the
achievement of a common goal: How to re-open the pipeline which
Musharraf has clogged by refusing to move on, making way for the
next in line to takeover. In the five years that he announced he
will stay on, almost all present corps commanders and lieutenant
generals would retire. That makes them automatic members of the
"Common Cause Club" (CCC) with its motto: “How to
get rid of Musharraf.”
The
issue here is neither political nor ethnic or regional. It is purely
a professional career matter, with many who would have otherwise
retired as Major Generals or Lieutenant Generals, now retiring in
their present lower ranks as vertical promotions would no longer
be possible and the only spots available would be those vacated
by the incumbents when they go home at retirement age. Their chief
would, however, continue until he is 64, as per his latest announcement.
The
CCC may not have to look for excuses as Musharraf has already provided
so many. After all, at his Press conference, he publicly assumed
all responsibility for what he was doing. That means that if someone
needed an scapegoat for the countless number of messy situations
that have been created, it would be our top General and no one else.
The
top most justification would be the October polls itself. If anti-Musharraf
forces rally together and get a clear majority, Musharraf would
be a lame duck instantly. If polls do not appear to be free, fair
and transparent, again no one else can claim that honour but him.
If his officially sponsored and projected King's Party fails, his
options will be extremely limited to play around with the rest.
So far only he is to blame for getting all the bad publicity for
pre-poll rigging without actually producing any credible winning
combination.
On the contrary, if Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif move closer
and make significant adjustments just for the sake of defeating
the army game plan, who else will be credited except the General.
And reports say that they are. It is his failure that people now
look up to the political parties again. It is his failure that almost
unanimously his constitutional package, or the crux which mattered,
was rejected. Other amendments thrown in as bargaining chips were
duly withdrawn but no one seriously discussed them.
On the main issues, Musharraf admitted that there was universal
opposition but since he was convinced, he would go ahead. For the
rest of the argument, he shifted the onus to the Supreme Court which,
he said, should be asked why they had given him the mandate or whether
they had the constitutional authority to do so. In his Legal Framework
Order he has closed that option as well, so he was just bluffing
at his news conference.
This
situation leaves Musharraf with very bitter choices. All those,
specially from the army constituency of Punjab, who retire without
a promotion will have to be adjusted in their post-retirement phases
in public sector corporations, embassies abroad or with cushy jobs
elsewhere. With an elected, albeit pliant Prime Minister, this may
not be an easy task for the President. So either he will have to
take the responsibility of making top appointments himself, which
may annoy the PM and give him cause to complain, or he may have
to abandon his ex-colleagues.
The
alternative bitter pill may be to keep on promoting junior officers
to the ranks of major generals and lieutenant generals, without
actually having any slots to adjust them in the army hierarchy.
This has been done in the past and that is why Pakistan has one
of the largest number of top generals for any army. Before the 1971
war, when Bangladesh was part of Pakistan, the number of generals
was almost half than what we have now. The result is that posts
which were handled by colonels or brigadiers are now manned by major
generals and lieutenant generals. Scores of others have been fanned
out to corporate sector jobs.
But
there is a limit to all this. Pakistan Army is not an employment
agency obligated to offer lucrative jobs with perks, privileges,
lands, concessions and rebates and above all retirement benefits,
unmatched anywhere in the world. And all this without the army ever
fighting and winning a war. With the so-called nuclear deterrent,
and the only one which is said to be effective, conventional army
numbers should have gone down, saving some valuable bucks for other
long neglected sectors. Musharraf’s promise to stay on does
not provide all this scenario.
Under
these pitiable circumstances, it is no wonder that General Musharraf
has to keep his security iron tight a la Saddam Hussain of Iraq
or Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe. He is a marked person and his announcements
have given all his enemies a much revitalized cause to go for him.
His international supporters also have to keep in mind his precarious
situation.
Leaving
Pakistan for extended tours under these conditions would not be
advisable for Musharraf. Unless he is absolutely sure of loyalties
of his immediate subordinates, any UN meeting is not worth taking
the risk of leaving his forte. The man has got to lock himself up
into his own cage and keep the key in his pocket.
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